AI timeline predictions: are we getting better?

Abstract

Apart from that one difference, predictions look remarkably consistent over the span: modern predictors are claiming about the same time will elapse before AI arrives as their (incorrect) predecessors. This doesn't mean that the modern experts are wrong - maybe AI really is imminent this time round, maybe modern experts have more information and are making more finely calibrated guesses. But in a field like AI prediction, where experts lack feed back for their pronouncements, we should expect them to perform poorly, and for biases to dominate their thinking. This seems the likely hypothesis - it would be extraordinarily unlikely that modern experts, free of biases and full of good information, would reach exactly the same prediction distribution as their biased and incorrect predecessors. In summary: Over a third of predictors claim AI will happen 16-25 years in the future. There is no evidence that predictors are predicting AI happening towards the end of their own life expectancy. There is little difference between experts and non-experts (some possible reasons for this can be found here). There is little difference between current predictions, and those known to have been wrong previously. It is not unlikely that recent predictions are suffering from the same biases and errors as their predecessors.