A Brief Methodological Guide to Scenario Building

Abstract

This brief guide reviews the philosophical underpinnings of the prospective procedure then strives to explain the concepts and characteristics of this "intellectual undiscipline" which aims not to predict but rather to help shape the future. La prospective contributes to our efforts to gain foresight, an indispensable quality for anyone who wants to be an actor in a future yet to be created. The various stages of the procedure are presented, in particular the scenario method as applied by the author in local, national, and international futures projects for subjects as varied as aging populations, retirement in industrialized countries, and the impact of new technology on production. © 2000 Elsevier Science Inc.