Building technology foresight: Using scenarios to embrace innovation

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe the application of scenario planning methods to: identifying disruptive innovations at an early stage, mapping out potential development paths for such innovations, and building appropriate organizational capabilities. Design/methodology/approach – A combination of scenario planning with technology road-mapping, expert analysis and creative group processes. The techniques described can be integrated with traditional tools of strategic technology planning. The paper presents a short illustrative case study and examples from practice. Findings – Scenario techniques can be successfully applied to analysing disruptive innovation. Practical implications – Scenario techniques help guide managers to more effective decision making by preparing for a wide range of uncertainty and by counteracting typical biases of over-optimism and decision “framing”. The techniques presented can be used in executive development and in strategic planning for innovative and high-tech industries. Originality/value – This paper presents a novel way to combine scenario methods with technology road-mapping and creative group analysis. It also provides an overview of the literature and research related to scenario planning for disruptive innovation. © 2006, Emerald Group Publishing Limited