Past stratospheric ozone depletion has acted to cool the Earth's surface. As the result of the phase-out of anthropogenic halogenated compounds emissions, stratospheric ozone is projected to recover and its radiative forcing (RF-O3 ∼ -0.05 W/m2 presently) might therefore be expected to decay in line with ozone recovery itself. Using results from chemistry-climate models, we find that, although model projections using a standard greenhouse gas scenario broadly agree on the future evolution of global ozone, they strongly disagree on RF-O3 because of a large model spread in ozone changes in a narrow (several km thick) layer, in the northern lowermost stratosphere. Clearly, future changes in global stratospheric ozone cannot be considered an indicator of its overall RF. The multi-model mean RF-O3 estimate for 2100 is +0.06 W/m2 but with a range such that it could remain negative throughout this century or change sign and reach up to ∼0.25 W/m2. © 2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
CITATION STYLE
Bekki, S., Rap, A., Poulain, V., Dhomse, S., Marchand, M., Lefevre, F., … Chipperfield, M. P. (2013). Climate impact of stratospheric ozone recovery. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(11), 2796–2800. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50358
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