Framework for Earthquake Evacuation Planning: Case Study for Montreal, Canada

Abstract

Disaster management planning in Canada is government led, and the responsibilities are divided among federal, provincial, and local levels of government. The Civil Emergency Plan of Greater Montreal (Plan de sécurité civile de l'agglomération de Montréal) describes operations and responsibilities during emergencies and provides a framework for the strategic management cycle, which includes action, coordination, and communication between various decision centers. However, evacuation planning processes have not been described for any of these levels of government. Recognizing the necessity for evacuation planning, this paper proposes a three-step framework for earthquake evacuation planning for Montreal: (1) vulnerability assessment of the built environment and community demographics, (2) shelter and evacuation route planning, and (3) preparation of community evacuation maps. This paper also acknowledges the need for participatory and advocacy planning during the preparation of community evacuation plans. E vacuation planning for the aftermath of a disaster is hard to imagine in Montreal, a community that has rarely experienced a major natural or human-made disaster. The most recent disaster to hit the Montreal region was a major ice storm in January 1998. Damage due to the ice storm totaled over $C3 billion, and 30 casualties resulted from circumstances associated with the event [Québec (Province) 1999]. Moreover, critical infra-structures were disrupted (electricity, telecommunications , water filtration), and 3½ million people were directly affected by power outages. Several thousand people took refuge in shelters or other suitable ac-commodations (with family and friends), but no massive evacuation was required in the aftermath of the ice storm. The event did, however, raise significant concerns about the feasibility of evacuating a large proportion of the population in the eventuality of a major disaster such as an earthquake, especially in the winter. Montreal is ranked second in Canada for seismic risk after Vancouver due to its large population, aging infrastructure, and regional seismic hazards (Rosset and Chouinard 2009; Natural Resources Canada 2012). Hazards may become disasters without proper disaster management planning. Although it is not possible to prevent or predict natural hazards such as earthquakes, their adverse effects can be minimized through various actions and strategies. By implementing effective mitigation and preparedness measures (e.g., contingency planning, evacuation planning), OCTOBER 2012 L e a d e r s h i p a n d M a n a g e m e n t i n E n g i n e e r i n g 222