Future trends of intelligent decision support systems and models

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate, formulate, and analyse the general rules and principles that govern the evolution of key factors that influence the development of decision support systems (DSS) and models. In order to ela borate a model suitable for medium-term forecasts and recommendations, we have defined eight major elements of Information Society that characterise the evolution of the corresponding digital economy. The evolution of the overall system is described by a discrete-continuous-event system, where the mutual impacts of each of the elements are represented within state-space models. Technological trends and external economic decisions form inputs, while feedback loops allow us to model the influence of technological demand on IT, R&D, production, and supply of DSS. The technological characteristics of the product line evolution modelled in this way can provide clues to software providers about future demand. They can also give R&D and educational institutions some idea on the most likely directions of develop¬ment and demand for IT professionals. As an example, we will model the evolution of decision-support systems and recommenders for 3D-internet-based e-commerce, and their impact on technological progress, consumption patterns and social behaviour. The re sults presented here have been obtained during an IS/IT foresight project carried out in Poland since 2010 and financed by the ERDF. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.