Impact of a potential 21st century "grand solar minimum" on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

Abstract

We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 by 0.2 to 0.3 K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10 years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer. Key Points A future grand solar minimum will modify the global ozone distribution A future grand solar minimum will have an impact on the rate of global warming Strength and duration of a future grand solar minimum are highly uncertain. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.