Industrial energy efficiency and climate change mitigation Ernst Worrell & Lenny Bernstein & Joyashree Roy & Lynn Price & Jochen Harnisch Received: 15 June 2008 /Accepted: 7 November 2008 / Published online: 30 November 2008 # The Author(s) 2008. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com Abstract Industry contributes directly and indirectly (through consumed electricity) about 37% of the global greenhouse gas emissions, of which over 80% is from energy use. Total energy-related emis- sions, which were 9.9 GtCO2 in 2004, have grown by 65% since 1971. Even so, industry has almost continuously improved its energy efficiency over the past decades. In the near future, energy efficiency is potentially the most important and cost-effective means for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from industry. This paper discusses the potential contribu- tion of industrial energy-efficiency technologies and policies to reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions to 2030. Keywords Greenhouse gas mitigation . Industry. Energy efficiency. Policy. Potentials Introduction This article is based on chapter 7 of the Working Group III report to the IPCC Fourth Assessment (IPCC 2007) and provides a review of the trends, opportunities, and policy options to reduce green- house gas (GHG) emissions from the industrial sector. Industry uses almost 40% of worldwide energy. It contributes almost 37% of global GHG emissions. In most countries, CO2 accounts for more than 90% of CO2-eq GHG emissions from the industrial sector (Price et al. 2006 US EPA 2006). These CO2 emissions arise from three sources: (1) the use of fossil fuels for energy, either directly by industry for heat and power generation or indirectly in the generation of purchased electricity and steam, (2) non-energy uses of fossil fuels in chemical processing Energy Efficiency (2009) 2:109���123 DOI 10.1007/s12053-008-9032-8 E. Worrell (*) Science, Technology & Society, Copernicus Institute, ECOFYS/Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2 3584 CS, Utrecht, The Netherlands e-mail: e.worrell@uu.nl L. Bernstein L.S. Bernstein and Associates, LLC. 488 Kimberly Avenue, Asheville, NC 28804, USA J. Roy Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700032, India L. Price Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA J. Harnisch ECOFYS, Langrabenstrasse 94, 90443 N��rnberg, Germany Present address: J. Harnisch KfW, Palmengartenstrasse 5-9, 60325 Frankfurt/Main, Germany

and metal smelting, and (3) non-fossil fuel sources, for example cement and lime manufacture. Industrial processes, primarily chemical manufacturing and metal smelting, also emit other GHGs, including methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), HFCs, CFCs, and PFCs, The energy intensity of industry has steadily declined in most countries since the oil price shocks of the 1970s. Historically, industrial energy-efficiency improvement rates have typically been around 1%/ year. However, various countries have demonstrated that it is possible to double these rates for extended periods of time (i.e., 10 years or more) through the use of policy mechanisms. Still, large potentials exist to further reduce energy use and GHG emissions in most sectors and economies. Historic and future trends Globally, energy-intensive industries still emit the largest share of industrial GHG emissions (Dasgupta and Roy 2000 IEA 2007, 2008 Sinton and Fridley 2000). Hence, this paper focuses on the key energy- intensive industries: iron and steel, chemicals (includ- ing fertilizers), petroleum refining, minerals (cement, lime, glass, and ceramics), and pulp and paper. The production of energy-intensive industrial goods has grown dramatically and is expected to continue growing as population and per capita income increase. Since 1970, global annual production of cement increased 336% aluminum, 252% steel, 95% (USGS 2005) ammonia, 353% (IFA 2005) and paper, 190% (FAO 2008). Much of the world���s energy-intensive industry is now located in developing nations (see Fig. 1). In 2006, developing countries accounted for 74% of global cement manufacture (USGS 2005), 63% of global nitrogen fertilizer production, about 50% of global primary aluminum production (USGS 2008), and 48% of global steel production (USGS 2008). In 2006, developing countries accounted for 49% of final energy use by industry, developed countries 40%, and economies in transition 11%. Since many facilities in developing nations are new, they some- times incorporate the latest technology and have the lowest specific emission rates (BEE 2006 IEA 2006b). Many older, inefficient facilities remain in both industrialised and developing countries. Howev- er, there is a huge demand for technology transfer (hardware, software, and know-how) to developing nations to achieve energy efficiency and emissions reduction in their industrial sectors. Though large- scale production dominates these energy-intensive 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1990 2006 1990 2006 1990 2006 1990 2002 1990 2006 1990 2005 1990 2006 Steel Cement Aluminium Ethylene Ammonia Petroleum Pdts Pulp and Paper OECD EIT non-OECD Source: IFA, 2005 UN, 2007 USGS, 2007, IEA, 2008, FAO, 2008. Fig. 1 The 1990 and 2006 share of commodities pro- duction from OECD, EIT, and non-OECD countries. Source: IFA (2005), UN (2007), USGS (2007), IEA (2008), and FAO (2008) 110 Energy Efficiency (2009) 2:109���123

industries, globally small- and medium-sized enter- prises have significant shares in many developing countries, which create special challenges for mitiga- tion efforts. Total industrial sector GHG emissions are currently estimated to be about 12 GtCO2-eq/year. Global and sectoral data on final energy use, primary energy use, and energy-related CO2 emissions, including indirect emissions related to electricity use, for 1971 to 2005 are shown in Table 1. In 1971, the industrial sector used 91 EJ of primary energy, 40% of the global total of 227 EJ. By 2005, industry���s share of global primary energy use declined to 38%. Energy use represents the largest source of GHG emissions in industry (83%). In 2005, energy use by the industrial sector resulted in emissions of 10.2 GtCO2, 38% of global CO2 emissions from energy use. Direct CO2 emissions totalled 5.2 Gt, the balance being indirect emissions associated with the generation of electricity and other energy carriers. The developing nations��� share of industrial CO2 emissions from energy use grew from 18% in 1971 to 55% in 2005. In 2000, CO2 emissions from non-energy uses of fossil fuels (e.g., production of petrochemicals) and from non- fossil fuel sources (e.g., cement manufacture) were estimated to be 1.7 GtCO2 (Olivier and Peters 2005). Industrial emissions of non-CO2 gases totaled about 0.4 GtCO2-eq in 2000 and are projected to be at about the same level in 2010. Direct GHG emissions from the industrial sector are currently about 7.3 GtCO2-eq, and total emissions, including indirect emissions, are about 12.3 GtCO2-eq. Future projections of the IPCC (IPCC 2000) show energy-related industrial CO2 emissions of 14 and 20 GtCO2 in 2030 for the B2 and A1B scenarios1, respectively. In both scenarios, CO2 emissions from industrial energy use are expected to grow signifi- cantly in the developing countries while remaining essentially constant in the A1 scenario and declining in the B2 scenario for the industrialized countries and countries with economies-in-transition. Energy efficiency and GHG emission mitigation IEA (2005) found, ���The energy intensity of most industrial processes is at least 50% higher than the theoretical minimum.��� This provides a significant opportunity for reducing energy use and its associated CO2 emissions. A wide range of technologies have the potential for reducing industrial GHG emissions, of which energy efficiency is one of the most important, especially in the short- to mid-term. Other opportunities include fuel switching, material effi- ciency, renewables, and reduction of non-CO2 GHG emissions. Within each category, some technologies such as the use of more efficient motor systems are broadly applicable across all industries, while others are process specific. Below, we discuss cross-cutting and industry-wide technology opportunities, process or sector-specific technologies, as well as manage- ment or operational opportunities. Sector-wide technologies Approximately 65% of electricity consumed by industry is used by motor systems (De Keulenaer et al. 2004 Xenergy 1998). The efficiency of motor- driven systems can be increased by reducing losses in the motor windings, using better magnetic steel, improving the aerodynamics of the motor, and improving manufacturing tolerances. However, max- imizing efficiency requires properly sizing of all components, improving the efficiency of the end-use devices (pumps, fans, etc.), reducing electrical and mechanical transmission losses, and the use of proper operation and maintenance procedures. Implementing high-efficiency motor-driven systems or improving existing ones in the EU-25 could save about 30% of the energy consumption of up to 202 TWh/year (De Keulenaer et al. 2004) and over 100 TWh/year by 2010 in the USA (Xenergy 1998). IEA (2006a) estimates that steam generation consumes about 15% of global final industrial energy use. The efficiency of current steam boilers can be as high as 85%, through general maintenance, improved insulation, combustion controls, and leak repair improved steam traps and condensate recovery. 1 The terms refer to the IPCC Special report on Emission Scenarios and denote two different world views. The A1-family of scenarios assumes a world of rapid economic growth and regional convergence, with global population peaking mid- century. The B2 scenario reflects a world with modest economic and population growth, while the economies are more locally oriented. Neither scenario is considered more or less probably than the other. Energy Efficiency (2009) 2:109���123 111