Innovation Forecasting

Abstract

Technological forecasting is premised on a certain orderliness of the innovation process. Myriad studies of technological substitution, diffusion, and transfer processes have yielded conceptual models of what matters for successful innovation, but most technological forecasts key on limited empirical measures quite divorced from those innovation process models. We glean a number of concepts from various innovation models, then present an array of bibliometric measures that offer the promise of operationalizing these concepts. Judicious combination of such bibliometrics with other forms of evidence offers an enriched form of technological forecasting we call "innovation forecasting." This provides a good means to combine technological trends, mapping of technological interdependencies, and competitive intelligence to produce a viable forecast. We illustrate by assessing prospects for ceramic engine technologies. © 1997 Elsevier Science Inc.