Global Environmental Change 16 (2006) 40���47 Island abandonment and sea-level rise: An historical analog from the Chesapeake Bay, USA Sheila J. Arenstam Gibbonsa, Robert J. Nichollsb, aDepartment of Geography and Environmental Studies, Wilfrid Laurier University, 75 University Ave. W., Waterloo, Canada ON N2L 3C5 bSchool of Civil Engineering and the Environment and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK Received 25 November 2004 received in revised form 22 July 2005 accepted 22 October 2005 Abstract Small islands are widely agreed to be vulnerable to human-induced sea-level rise during the 21st century and beyond, with forced abandonment of some low-lying oceanic islands being a real possibility. A regional abandonment of islands in the Chesapeake Bay, USA provides an historical analog of such vulnerability as this has been linked to a mid 19th Century acceleration in relative sea-level rise. Using a case study approach for Holland Island, Maryland, this hypothesis was tested using a range of physical and human historical data. While sea-level rise was the underlying driver, this analysis shows that the abandonment was more complex than a direct response to sea-level rise. Between 1850 and 1900, Holland Island was a booming community and population increased from 37 to 253, with immigration causing the majority of the increase. At the same time, the upland area where people made their homes was steadily diminishing, losing about 15ha or 38% of the total. After 1900, the island experienced a decrease in population to 169 in 1916, with final abandonment in 1918, with the exception of one family who left by 1920. Final abandonment was triggered by this depopulation as the population fell below a level that could support critical community services, and the community lost faith in their future on Holland Island. It is likely that similar social processes determined the abandonment of the other Chesapeake Bay islands. Looking to the future, it shows that many small low-lying islands could be abandoned due to sea-level rise long before they become physically uninhabitable. r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Islands Sea-level rise Abandonment Atoll nations 1. Introduction The Chesapeake Bay, USA has experienced significant relative sea-level rise since the mid 19th Century at rates of 30���40cm/century (e.g., Kearney and Stevenson, 1991 Nicholls and Leatherman, 1996). There have been im- portant natural system responses to this driver, including wetland degradation, upland to wetland conversion and island reduction and loss (Downs et al., 1994 Wray et al., 1995 Leatherman et al., 1995). However, the impacts on human society are less clear. Both Kearney and Stevenson (1991) and Leatherman (1992) associated sea-level rise and land loss with abandonment of most of the Chesapeake Bay islands by their resident populations early in the 20th Century. However, understanding the cause and effect relationships between these changes is more complex, including the role of sea-level rise versus other factors that might drive island abandonment. This paper explores the relationship between sea-level rise and island abandonment for Holland Island. It combines a number of methods to understand natural- and human-system changes on and hence the possible direct and indirect impact of sea-level rise on an island community. 2. Holland island Holland Island is located in the Chesapeake Bay, in Dorchester County, Maryland, approximately 11 km from the mainland (Fig. 1). In 1849, Holland Island occupied about 105ha comprised of three low-elevation upland ARTICLE IN PRESS www.elsevier.com/locate/gloenvcha 0959-3780/$ -see front matter r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.10.002 Corresponding author. Tel.: +442380594139 fax: +442380595719. E-mail address: r.j.nicholls@soton.ac.uk (R.J. Nicholls).

ridges running roughly north to south along the eastern and western edges of the island, and through the center. Wetland areas separated each ridge. As with most Chesapeake Bay islands, Holland Island is dominantly composed of silts and clay resulting in a lack of well- developed protective beaches. The western side of the island is exposed to waves in the main Chesapeake Bay, with a fetch of up to 29 km, while the eastern side of the island is much more sheltered with a fetch of no more than 3km. During the years of habitation by European settlers beginning with the 17th century, a thriving community lived on Holland Island (Parks, 1972). By 1900, the island had about 70 buildings and an economy based on fisheries. Its more than 200 residents had established many commu- nity institutions such as a church, school, stores, and a post office. Yet within 20 years, all its year-round residents had abandoned the island. 3. Methodology In order to understand the human response to sea-level rise, it is important to quantify both physical and human changes. In this sense, the physical data provide the backdrop against which the social response is analyzed. Physical source data included mean sea-level data, Na- tional Ocean Service Topographic Sheets (NOS T-sheets), aerial photography, documentary evidence (historical land grants), geological surveys, and historical storm data. Historical coastal changes were mapped using NOS T- sheets and aerial photographs for Holland Island and neighboring islands for the years 1849���1989, including distinguishing areas of wetland and upland. For the purpose of this study, upland is defined as dry land above normal tides upon which homes and roads were built, including arable land. The methods are similar to those used by Downs et al. (1994) and Wray et al. (1995) on other Chesapeake Bay islands. Land loss prior to 1849 was reconstructed using historical source data following Kear- ney and Stevenson (1991). Socioeconomic data such as population trends, occupa- tions trends, and trends in fish production were investi- gated for an approximately 70-year period from 1850 to 1920. Historical data sources included written histories and newspaper articles, United States census data, United Methodist Church records, Dorchester County land records, NOS T-sheets, historical statistics of fish produc- tion in the Chesapeake Bay. In addition, after extensive enquiries two elderly former island residents from Holland Island were located and interviewed about the abandon- ment on 28 March 1993. 4. Physical changes: 17th���20th century Fig. 2 shows mean sea-level data from New York City (the longest US east coast record dating back to 1856), Baltimore (the longest Chesapeake Bay record) and Solomon���s Island, which is 60 km from Holland Island (Fig. 1). While they cover different periods, the data shows similar trends and it is meaningful to extrapolate observed sea-level rise from New York City to the Chesapeake Bay (cf. Douglas, 1991). The analysis suggests that from 1850 to ARTICLE IN PRESS Fig. 1. Holland Island, Maryland and its environs. 6600 6800 7000 7200 7400 1850 1900 1950 2000 Time (years) Sea Level (mm) New York City Baltimore Solomons Island Fig. 2. Relative sea-level measurements from 1856 to 2000 for New York, Baltimore and Solomons Island. The data has been offset to allow easy viewing. Downloaded from http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/. S.J. Arenstam Gibbons, R.J. Nicholls / Global Environmental Change 16 (2006) 40���47 41