Managing environmentally induced migration

Abstract

Over the last few years there has been an upsurge of interest in the likely impact of climate change on population movements. Estimates have suggested that between 25 million to one billion people could be displaced by climate change over the next 40 years. For the most part these figures represent the number of people exposed to the risk of climate change in certain parts of the world and do not take account of the measures that could be taken to adapt to these changes. Although experts have dismissed such figures as, at best, “guesswork” these statistics have helped to focus policy makers’ attention on the likely implications of climate change on migration. Despite the lack of precise figures, there is now little doubt that parts of the earth are becoming less habitable due to factors such as climate change, deterioration of agricultural lands, desertification, and water pollution. The number of natural disasters has more than doubled over the last two decades, and more than 20 million people were displaced by sudden-onset climate-related natural disasters in 2008 (OCHA-IDMC, 2009). Further climate change, with global temperatures expected to rise between 2 and 5 degrees centigrade by the end of this century, could have a major impact on the movement of people. Policy makers are therefore asking the research community and other experts to provide them with guidance in regards to a number of key questions. First,