Modeling distributions of disjunct populations of the Sierra Madre Sparrow

Abstract

Sierra Madre Sparrows (Xenospiza baileyi) are among the least known of all bird species in Mexico. Recent surveys have discovered previously unknown populations and the current known distribution of Sierra Madre Sparrows consists of two populations separated by >800 km. We used available distributional information to develop ecological niche models that (1) predict much of the distribution potential of the species, (2) establish that the broad disjunction separating the two populations has ecological correlates that appear to be important to the distributional of these sparrows, and (3) illustrate the extremely restricted ecological distribution of the species. We used two sets of climatic and topographic variables, with one including all 22 variables available and the second with only six variables that were positively related to quality of distributional models. Although indications of differences between the two sets of populations were found based on the full 22-dimensional environmental dataset, such a highly dimensional analysis is vulnerable to over-fitting; models based on the reduced dataset indicated that the two populations occur in areas with similar ecological conditions. Our models also suggest that southern population of Sierra Madre Sparrows covers most of their potential range in that region. The potential range of the northern population, however, extends beyond known points of occurrence. To clarify the distribution of Sierra Madre Sparrows and evaluate their status and conservation opportunities, detailed searches for additional populations in areas identified by the model are needed. © 2008 Association of Field Ornithologists.