Modelling Society’s Capacity to Manage Extraordinary Events: Developing a Generic Design Basis (GDB) Model for Extraordinary Societal Events using Computer-Aided Morphological Analysis

Abstract

Extraordinary societal events are – by definition – rare events which cannot be adequately treated on the basis of measurable probabilities and traditional risk analysis. The complex socio-technical and ideological processes involved are difficult to predict or causally simulate. Instead, such “risks” must be studied and treated from the perspective of genuine uncertainty. The Swedish Emergency Management Agency (SEMA) and the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) are developing a Generic Design Basis (GDB) model as strategic decision support for treating the uncertainties involved in the emergence of extreme societal events. The model is being developed with the aid of computerized morphological analysis. The starting point is the identification, structuring and analysis of undesirable consequences for society (i.e. effects), rather than any fix set of causes. These consequences are defined inter alia on the basis of political values and norms, which take the form of a national security strategy. The aim is to identify and set priorities between different measures which will increase Sweden’s capacity to manage extreme events which represent serious threats to society.