How Much Farmland Is Being Converted to Urban Use?

Abstract

The National Agricultural Lands Study (NALS), using data prepared by the Soil Conservation Service (SCS), has estimated that between 1967 and 1977 two to three million acres annually have been shifted from farmland to urban uses and water. This paper argues that the underlying data have not been shown to be reliable. The sample in a 1975 re-survey is far too small for accurate estimates in this context, and the methods used in the comparison of surveys are probably biased because they allow for correction of errors in only one direction. There are many inconsistencies among the NALS reports and grave conflicts between the estimates derived from the SCS sources and other sources. The SCS-NALS estimates probably are much too high and should not be used in public discussion of policy on this matter. The historical average of one million acres per year seems much better supported by the evidence observed from 1950 to 1967. © 1982, Sage Publications. All rights reserved.