Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level

Abstract

The oceans are warming. Over the period 1961 to 2003, global ocean temperature has risen by 0.10 deg C from the surface to a depth of 700 m. Consistent with the Third Assessment Report (TAR), global ocean heat content (0-3,000 m) has increased during the same period, equivalent to absorbing energy at a rate of 0.21 0.04 W m-2 globally averaged over the Earth's surface. Two-thirds of this energy is absorbed between the surface and a depth of 700 m. Global ocean heat content observations show considerable interannual and inter-decadal variability superimposed on the longer-term trend. Relative to 1961 to 2003, the period 1993 to 2003 has high rates of warming but since 2003 there has been some cooling. Large-scale, coherent trends of salinity are observed for 1955 to 1998, and are characterised by a global freshening in subpolar latitudes and a salinification of shallower parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. Freshening is pronounced in the Pacific while increasing salinities prevail over most of Atlantic and Indian Oceans. These trends are consistent with changes in precipitation and inferred larger water transport in the atmosphere from low latitudes to high latitudes and from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Observations do not allow for a reliable estimate of the global average change in salinity in the oceans. Large-scale, coherent trends of salinity are observed for 1955 to 1998, and are characterised by a global freshening in subpolar latitudes and a salinification of shallower parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. Freshening is pronounced in the Pacific while increasing salinities prevail over most of Atlantic and Indian Oceans. These trends are consistent with changes in precipitation and inferred larger water transport in the atmosphere from low latitudes to high latitudes and from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Observations do not allow for a reliable estimate of the global average change in salinity in the oceans. Global mean sea level has been rising. From 1961 to 2003, the average rate of sea level rise was 1.8 0.5 mm yr-1. For the 20th century, the average rate was 1.7 0.5 mm yr-1, consistent with the TAR estimate of 1 to 2 mm yr-1. There is high confidence that the rate of sea level rise has increased between the mid-19th and the mid-20th centuries. Sea level change is highly non-uniform spatially, and in some regions, rates are up to several times the global mean rise, while in other regions sea level is falling. There is evidence for an increase in the occurrence of extreme high water worldwide related to storm surges, and variations in extremes during this period are related to the rise in mean sea level and variations in regional climate. The rise in global mean sea level is accompanied by considerable decadal variability. For the period 1993 to 2003, the rate of sea level rise is estimated from observations with satellite altimetry as 3.1 0.7 mm yr-1, significantly higher than the average rate. The tide gauge record indicates that similar large rates have occurred in previous 10-year periods since 1950. It is unknown whether the higher rate in 1993 to 2003 is due to decadal variability or an increase in the longer-term trend. There are uncertainties in the estimates of the contributions to sea level change but understanding has significantly improved for recent periods. For the period 1961 to 2003, the average contribution of thermal expansion to sea level rise was 0.4 0.1 mm yr-1. As reported in the TAR, it is likely that the sum of all known contributions for this period is smaller than the observed sea level rise, and therefore it is not possible to satisfactorily account for the processes causing sea level rise. However, for the period 1993 to 2003, for which the observing system is much better, the contributions from thermal expansion (1.6 0.5 mm yr-1) and loss of mass from glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets together give 2.8 0.7 mm yr-1. For the latter period, the climate contributions constitute the main factors in the sea level budget, which is closed to within known errors.