Sign up & Download
Sign in

A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment errors.

by Jerome R Busemeyer, Emmanuel M Pothos, Riccardo Franco, Jennifer S Trueblood
Psychological review ()

Abstract

A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction and disjunction fallacies, averaging effects, unpacking effects, and order effects on inference. On the one hand, quantum theory is similar to other categorization and memory models of cognition in that it relies on vector spaces defined by features and similarities between vectors to determine probability judgments. On the other hand, quantum probability theory is a generalization of Bayesian probability theory because it is based on a set of (von Neumann) axioms that relax some of the classic (Kolmogorov) axioms. The quantum model is compared and contrasted with other competing explanations for these judgment errors, including the anchoring and adjustment model for probability judgments. In the quantum model, a new fundamental concept in cognition is advanced--the compatibility versus incompatibility of questions and the effect this can have on the sequential order of judgments. We conclude that quantum information-processing principles provide a viable and promising new way to understand human judgment and reasoning.

Cite this document (BETA)

Readership Statistics

78 Readers on Mendeley
by Discipline
 
 
 
by Academic Status
 
32% Ph.D. Student
 
12% Post Doc
 
10% Student (Master)
by Country
 
5% United Kingdom
 
4% United States
 
4% France

Sign up today - FREE

Mendeley saves you time finding and organizing research. Learn more

  • All your research in one place
  • Add and import papers easily
  • Access it anywhere, anytime

Start using Mendeley in seconds!

Already have an account? Sign in