Reductionism or layered complexity? The futures of futures studies

Abstract

Futures studies is likely to evolve through changes in five areas. They are: (1) forecasting to anticipatory action learning; (2) reductionist to complex; (3) horizontal to vertical; (4) from short-term empiricist research to the return of long-term history, including grand narratives; and (5) scenario development to moral futures. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.