Risk Decision Making in Operational Safety Management– Experience from the Nordic Benchmark Study

Abstract

Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) and Studsvik AB, Sweden, have simulated decision making of the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and a power company by applying decision models in a benchmark study. Based on the experience from the benchmark study, a decision analysis framework to be used in safety related problems is outlined. By this framework both the power companies and the safety authorities could be provided with a more rigorous, systematic approach in their decision making. A decision analytic approach provides a structure for identifying the information requirements of the problem solving. Thus it could serve as a discussion forum between the authorities and the utilities. In this context, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has a crucial role of expressing the plant safety status in terms of reactor core damage accident probability and of risk contributions from various accident precursors. However, a decision under uncertainty should not be based solely on probabilities, particularly when the event in question is a rare one and its probability of occurrence is estimated by means of different kinds of approximations. Copyright © 1994, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved