Scenarios of global anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and methane until 2030

Abstract

We have used a global version of the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model to estimate anthropogenic emissions of the air pollution precursors sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), primary carbonaceous particles of black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and methane (CH4). We developed two scenarios to constrain the possible range of future emissions. As a baseline, we investigated the future emission levels that would result from the implementation of the already adopted emission control legislation in each country, based on the current national expectations of economic development. Alternatively, we explored the lowest emission levels that could be achieved with the most advanced emission control technologies that are on the market today. This paper describes data sources and our assumptions on activity data, emission factors and the penetration of pollution control measures. We estimate that, with current expectations on future economic development and with the present air quality legislation, global anthropogenic emissions of SO2 and NOx would slightly decrease between 2000 and 2030. For carbonaceous particles and CO, reductions between 20% and 35% are computed, while for CH4 an increase of about 50% is calculated. Full application of currently available emission control technologies, however, could achieve substantially lower emissions levels, with decreases up to 30% for CH4, 40% for CO and BC, and nearly 80% for SO2. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.