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Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century

by Y. Hu, Y. Xia, Q. Fu
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ()

Abstract

Recent simulations predicted that the stratospheric ozone layer will\nlikely return to pre-1980 levels in the middle of the 21st century, as a\nresult of the decline of ozone depleting substances under the Montreal\nProtocol. Since the ozone layer is an important component in determining\nstratospheric and tropospheric-surface energy balance, the recovery of\nstratospheric ozone may have significant impact on tropospheric-surface\nclimate. Here, using multi-model results from both the Intergovernmental\nPanel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4) models and\ncoupled chemistry-climate models, we show that as ozone recovery is\nconsidered, the troposphere is warmed more than that without considering\nozone recovery, suggesting an enhancement of tropospheric warming due to\nozone recovery. It is found that the enhanced tropospheric warming is\nmostly significant in the upper troposphere, with a global and annual\nmean magnitude of similar to 0.41K for 2001-2050. We also find that\nrelatively large enhanced warming occurs in the extratropics and polar\nregions in summer and autumn in both hemispheres, while the enhanced\nwarming is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern\nHemisphere. Enhanced warming is also found at the surface. The global\nand annual mean enhancement of surface warming is about 0.16K for\n2001-2050, with maximum enhancement in the winter Arctic.

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