WTO Trade Talks: a Bird in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush

Abstract

Six months have passed since the suspension of the wto negotiations and the ability of countries to reach an agreement on the Doha Development Agenda is still doubtful. However, the consolidation of the progresses achieved during the last five years is within reach. We can deplore that the introduction of sensitive products, partially exempted from liberalisation, will reduce by half the gains of such an agreement. However, this flexibility seems a sine qua non condition for making a deal to reap half of the gains from real free trade. We feed the discussion using simulations made with the mirage model and stress that, for the particular case of Sub-Saharan Africa Least Developed Countries, the losses coming from the multilateral liberalisation could be largely offset by an unrestricted access of their products into major emerging economies.