Arctic sea ice in the PlioMIP ensemble: is model performance for modern climates a reliable guide to performance for the past or the future?

Abstract

Eight general circulation models have simulated the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) as part of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here, we analyse and compare their simulation of Arctic sea ice for both the pre-industrial and the mid-Pliocene. Mid-Pliocene sea ice thickness and extent is reduced and displays greater variability within the ensemble compared to the pre-industrial. This variability is highest in the summer months, when the model spread in the mid-Pliocene is more than three times larger than the rest of the year. Correlations between mid-Pliocene Arctic temperatures and sea ice extents are almost twice as strong as the equivalent correlations for the pre-industrial simulations. It is suggested that the weaker relationship between pre-industrial Arctic sea ice and temperatures is likely due to the tuning of climate models to achieve an optimal pre-industrial sea ice cover, which may also affect future predictions of Arctic sea ice. Model tuning for the pre-industrial does not appear to be best suited for simulating the different climate state of the mid-Pliocene. This highlights the importance of evaluating climate models through simulation of past climates, and the urgent need for more proxy evidence of sea ice during the Pliocene.