Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4149–4161, 2011
www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/4149/2011/
doi:10.5194/acp-11-4149-2011
© Author(s) 2011. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
Atmospheric
Chemistry
and Physics
Aura MLS observations of the westward-propagating s=1, 16-day
planetary wave in the stratosphere, mesosphere and lower
thermosphere
K. A. Day1, R. E. Hibbins2,3, and N. J. Mitchell1
1Centre for Space, Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering,
The University of Bath, BA2 7AY, UK
2British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, CB3, 0ET, UK
3Department of Physics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway
Received: 11 August 2010 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 7 October 2010
Revised: 1 April 2011 – Accepted: 1 May 2011 – Published: 5 May 2011
Abstract. The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura
satellite has been used to measure temperatures in the strato-
sphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The data used
here are from August 2004 to December 2010 and latitudes
75◦ N to 75◦ S. The temperature data reveal the regular pres-
ence of a westward-propagating 16-day planetary wave with
zonal wavenumber 1. The wave amplitudes maximise in win-
ter at middle to high latitudes, where monthly-mean ampli-
tudes can be as large as ∼8 K. Significant wave amplitudes
are also observed in the summer-time mesosphere and lower
thermosphere (MLT) and at lower stratospheric heights of up
to ∼20 km at middle to high latitudes. Wave amplitudes in
the Northern Hemisphere approach values twice as large as
those in the Southern Hemisphere. Wave amplitudes are also
closely related to mean zonal winds and are largest in regions
of strongest eastward flow. There is a reduction in wave am-
plitudes at the stratopause. No significant wave amplitudes
are observed near the equator or in the strongly westward
background winds of the atmosphere in summer. This be-
haviour is interpreted as a consequence of wave/mean-flow
interactions. Perturbations in wave amplitude summer MLT
are compared to those simultaneously observed in the winter
stratosphere of the opposite hemisphere and found to have a
correlation coefficient of +0.22, suggesting a small degrees
of inter-hemispheric coupling. We interpret this to mean that
some of the summer-time MLT wave may originate in the
winter stratosphere of the opposite hemisphere and have been
ducted across the equator. We do not observe a significant
QBO modulation of the 16-day wave amplitude in the polar
Correspondence to: K. A. Day
(k.a.day@bath.ac.uk)
summer-time MLT. Wave amplitudes were also observed to
be suppressed during the major sudden stratospheric warm-
ing events of the Northern Hemisphere winters of 2006 and
2009.
1 Introduction
Planetary waves with periods of ∼2–16 days are an important
component in the coupling between the lower and middle at-
mosphere. Planetary waves play a key role in the transport
of energy, momentum and chemical species, both vertically
and horizontally. The waves interact very strongly with the
background winds of the atmosphere because their horizon-
tal phase speeds tend to be similar to the wind speeds, thus
promoting wave/mean-flow interactions. Planetary waves
are also known to modulate the gravity-wave field of the
middle atmosphere and consequently modulate the fluxes
of gravity-wave energy and momentum that drives the en-
tire global circulation of the upper middle atmosphere (e.g.
Forbes et al., 1991; Miyahara and Forbes, 1991a; Thayaparan
et al., 1995; Nakamura et al., 1997; Manson et al., 2003).
These modulated gravity-wave momentum fluxes can result
in planetary-wave signatures penetrating to the thermosphere
(Meyer, 1999).
Temperature perturbations caused by planetary waves also
modulate the occurrence of Polar Mesospheric Clouds (e.g.
Espy and Witt, 1996; Merkel et al., 2003, 2008; Nielsen et al.,
2010) and the associated phenomena of Polar Mesospheric
Summer Echoes (Morris et al., 2009). Studies of planetary
waves are thus very important in the attempt to understand
the coupling of the lower, middle and upper atmosphere.
Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

4150 K. A. Day et al.: The 16-day wave in the middle atmosphere
Fig. 1. Zonal phase speed as a function of latitude for a 16-day wave
of zonal wavenumber 1.
A major class of planetary waves are the so-called normal
modes, which have periods near 2, 5, 10 and 16 days (Salby,
1981a,b). These waves can be generated in the lower atmo-
sphere and propagate from the troposphere into the strato-
sphere and the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT).
In this paper we will consider the 16-day planetary wave.
Salby (1981a) suggested on theoretical grounds that the 16-
day planetary wave is a manifestation of the gravest symmet-
rical wavenumber 1, westward-travelling Rossby wave. The
period of the 16-day wave has, in fact, been observed to lie
between about 12–20 days. The wave has been reported to
have wind amplitudes of up to about ∼15 m s−1 and temper-
ature amplitudes reaching ∼10 K in the MLT (e.g. Williams
and Avery, 1992; Forbes et al., 1995; Day and Mitchell,
2010).
Previous studies of the 16-day wave have concentrated in
particular on its manifestation in the MLT region. This seems
to be partly because meteor and medium-frequency radars
and airglow spectrometers are able to make extended mea-
surements at these heights (e.g. Forbes et al., 1995; Mitchell
et al., 1999; Luo et al., 2002a; Lima et al., 2006). How-
ever, a number of modelling studies have suggested that the
wave can also reach large amplitude in the stratosphere (e.g.
Miyoshi, 1999; Luo et al., 2002b; Forbes et al., 1995).
These and other studies of the 16-day wave have reported
a clear seasonal cycle in wave amplitudes in the MLT at mid-
dle and low latitudes. Largest wave amplitudes generally
occur the winter-time. However, a secondary maximum in
the summer-time MLT is also sometimes observed (e.g., Luo
et al., 2000; Espy et al., 1997; Mitchell et al., 1999). Lower
polar-stratosphere studies of planetary-wave activity also re-
port the 16-day wave in the winter-time with larger ampli-
tudes in the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern Hemi-
sphere (e.g. Alexander and Shepherd, 2010).
There have been only a limited number of studies of the
16-day planetary wave in the polar atmosphere (e.g. Williams
and Avery, 1992; Luo et al., 2002b; Hibbins et al., 2009;
Day and Mitchell, 2010). These studies have also revealed
a winter-time maximum in wave amplitudes and a weaker
secondary maximum in summer.
The presence of the wave in winter is fully consistent with
its having propagated upwards from sources in the lower at-
mosphere to the MLT. The propagation of a planetary wave
in the atmosphere is controlled by the wave’s interaction with
the background winds (Charney and Drazin, 1961). From
Charney and Drazin theorem, in order to propagate vertically
a planetary wave must obey 0 < u¯−cx < Uc, where u¯ is the
zonal wind speed, cx is the zonal phase speed of the plan-
etary wave at the latitude in question and Uc is the critical
Rossby speed. For example, the westward-propagating s= 1
16-day wave at latitudes of 25, 50 and 75◦, has phase speeds
cx of −26, −19 and −8 m s−1 respectively. The mean zonal
wind speed, u¯ , must therefore be greater than −26, −19 and
−8 m s−1, respectively, for these three latitudes for the wave
to propagate.
However, the summer-time 16-day wave reported in the
MLT cannot have propagated upwards through the strato-
sphere to the MLT from source regions in the troposphere
and lower stratosphere. This is because the zonal phase speed
of the 16-day wave is less than the zonal winds of the middle
atmosphere. To illustrate this, Fig. 1 presents the zonal phase
speed of a 16-day wave as a function of latitude. Figure 2
presents for comparison climatological zonal winds from the
UARS Reference Atmosphere Project (URAP) for the tabu-
lated latitudes of 24◦, 52◦ and 76◦ N. Also indicated on the
figures are lines corresponding to the zonal phase speed of
the 16-day wave at these latitudes. From Fig. 2 it can be seen
that the wave cannot propagate above heights of about 32, 38
and 38 km, respectively in summer. However, the wave can
propagate at MLT heights in summer where the zonal winds
have increased to values that again allow propagation. In
winter the zonal winds are strongly eastward at all latitudes
and so the wave can propagate vertically through the entire
depth of the atmosphere.
There must therefore be a mechanism to explain the pres-
ence of the 16-day wave observed in the summer-time MLT.
Two principle mechanisms have been proposed for the exci-
tation of the summer-time 16-day wave in the MLT. These
are:
1. In situ excitation has been suggested by Williams and
Avery (1992). In this mechanism, gravity waves from
the lower atmosphere propagate upwards, but are fil-
tered by the 16-day wave in the upper troposphere and
lower stratosphere, thus imposing a 16-day modulation
on the field of ascending gravity waves. The gravity
waves then dissipate and transfer their momentum and
energy into the mean flow of the MLT, which in turn
excites a 16-day wave in situ. Smith (1996) observed
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K. A. Day et al.: The 16-day wave in the middle atmosphere 4151
Fig. 2. URAP winds for latitudes of 24◦, 52◦ and 76◦ N for both
winter (January) and summer (July). Also plotted are the zonal
phase speeds of the 16-day wave for these latitudes.
this in situ forcing of planetary-scale disturbances due to
variations in gravity-wave drag caused by stratospheric
filtering. The modelling study by Smith (2003) further
showed that such a mechanism can produce significant
planetary-wave amplitudes in the MLT, at least in the
case of stationary planetary waves.
2. Cross-equatorial propagation has been suggested,
where the winter-time wave crosses the equator to the
summer hemisphere MLT at heights above the strong
westward zonal mean flow of the summer-time middle
atmosphere through which wave propagation is prohib-
ited. This mechanism has been investigated in the mod-
elling studies of Miyahara et al. (1991b); Forbes et al.
(1995).
Observational studies by Espy et al. (1997); Jacobi et al.
(1998); Jacobi (1998); Hibbins et al. (2009) considered the
cross-equatorial propagation mechanism and attributed year-
to-year fluctuations in the amplitude of the 16-day wave in
the summer-time MLT to a modulation of the ducting process
by the equatorial QBO. These authors proposed that the am-
plitude of the 16-day wave was greater in the middle- to high-
latitude summer MLT during the eastward (westerly) phase
of the QBO. This is because when the QBO is in the negative
(easterly) phase the QBO winds in the middle atmosphere
reduce the winds of the background circulation yielding a
more westward total wind which, through Charney-Drazin
theorem, prevents the cross-equator propagation of the wave.
Note that here we are defining the QBO by the equatorial
stratospheric zonal mean wind.
Finally, we should note that the amplitude of the 16-day
wave and other planetary waves has been observed to be
suppressed in the winter hemisphere after major SSW (e.g.
Baldwin et al., 2003; Chshyolkova et al., 2006; Alexander
and Shepherd, 2010; Mbatha et al., 2010).
Here, we present observations of wave temperature ampli-
tudes of the 16-day wave in the global atmosphere at heights
of ∼20–100 km made using Aura Microwave Limb Sounder
(MLS). The data set is about 7 yr long, spanning the interval
from August 2004 to December 2010. In the first part of this
study we present a representative climatology of the 16-day
wave. In the second part of the study we investigate the oc-
currence of the summer-time 16-day wave in the polar MLT
and its connection to the winter stratosphere of the opposite
hemisphere and the possible role of the QBO in modulating
the amplitude of the wave in the summer-time MLT.
2 Data alysis
Data from the MLS instrument on the NASA EOS Aura
satellite are used in this study. Data have been recorded al-
most continuously since 15 July 2004. Aura MLS is a limb-
scanning emission microwave radiometer which measures
radiation in the GHz and THz frequency range (millimetre
and sub-millimetre wavelengths). The instrument measures
the vertical profile of temperature in the middle atmosphere.
Aura MLS provides daily global coverage. The satellite is
in a high inclination, sun-synchronous orbit. It repeats the
ground track every 16 days, providing atmospheric measure-
ments over virtually the whole globe in a repeated pattern.
The Limb instruments are designed to observe roughly along
the orbit plane. MLS is on the front of Aura and so observes
in a forward-velocity direction.
MLS temperatures from the Version 2.2 Temperature
Analysis are used in this study. This version has data avail-
able from 8 August 2004 (Livesey et al., 2008). The data are
recorded on 34 pressure levels ranging from 316–0.001 hPa
(∼10–96 km). The vertical resolution is 7–8 km from 316–
100 hPa, 4 km at 31–6.8 hPa, 6 km at 1 hPa and 9 km above
0.1 hPa. We converted the pressure levels to approximate
heights and will present the results as a function of this ap-
proximate height. This is done to facilitate comparisons with
measurements made by ground-based radars.
The standard product for temperature is taken for the Core
retrieval (118 GHz only) from 316 to 1.41 hPa and from the
Core + R2A (118 GHz and 190 GHz) retrieval from 1 hPa to
0.001 hPa. The temperature precision is ∼±1 K from 316–
0.1 hPa and degrades to ∼3 K at 0.01 hPa Schwartz et al.
(2008). The data are assigned a “flag” to comment on the
quality of the data. Quality is computed from a χ2 statistic
for all the radiances considered to have significantly affected
the retrieved species, normalised by dividing by the number
of radiances. Quality is simply the reciprocal of this statis-
tic. Here, if the data have a quality flag of “0” then they are
regarded as poor quality and not used in the analysis.
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4152 K. A. Day et al.: The 16-day wave in the middle atmosphere
Fig. 3. Least-squares fit error in the wave amplitudes for January
and July 2007 using a 95 % confidence level.
The 16-day planetary wave has been observed to occur
with a wide range of periods between ∼12 to 20 days, as de-
scribed in Sect. 1. Here, we will consider all planetary-scale
wave fluctuations within the period range 12 to 20 day and of
westward travelling wavenumber 1 to be attributable to the
“16-day wave”. This range of periods has also been used
in the majority of studies of the 16-day wave, (e.g. Forbes
et al., 1995; Miyoshi, 1999; Luo et al., 2002a; Jiang et al.,
2005; Lima et al., 2006; Day and Mitchell, 2010). Our results
should thus be directly comparable with these other studies.
The least-square fitting method of Wu et al. (1995) was
used to calculate wave amplitudes. Wu et al. (1995) discuss
the advantages and disadvantages of the method in depth.
This method has been used previously for Aura MLS temper-
ature and geopotential data analysis (e.g. Limpasuvan et al.,
2005; Baumgaertner et al., 2008; Limpasuvan and Wu, 2009;
McDonald et al., 2011). The advantage of this method is
that it can utilise a non-uniform or irregular sampling pattern,
but is less computationally intensive than alternative methods
such as FFT or asynoptic transforms.
Here, the temperature data are sorted into 10◦ latitude
bands and the least-squares fitting of a westward-propagating
zonal wavenumber 1 wave is applied to the monthly data
within each latitude band. The data are then gridded into
31 latitude bins, in steps of 5◦ from 75◦ N to 75◦ S. Wave
periods of 12–20 days are fitted in hourly steps. The largest
amplitude signal within this period range is then identified
as the 16-day wave for a particular latitude band and month.
For each height and latitude bin we have thus produced a
time series of the temperature amplitude of the 16-day wave.
The error in the least-squares fit amplitude was calculated
using the standard deviations on the least-squares periodic
fitting of the data with a 95 % confidence level. Figure 3
presents height-latitude contours of this error for the example
months of January and July 2007 (not all years and months
are shown for reasons of space). As can be seen the errors are
generally 0.6 K or smaller and this was true for all months
examined.
To investigate the role of the QBO in modulat-
ing the summer-time MLT 16-day wave, we considered
monthly-mean equatorial zonal winds at 10 hPa. The
QBO data product was obtained from Freie Univerista¨t
Berlin (FUB) (http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/
produkte/qbo/index.html). This data set has been produced
from the Singapore radiosonde data, January 1987 to Decem-
ber 2010.
3 Results
3.1 Climatology
In this section we will present a representative climatology
of the 16-day wave. Firstly, we will consider the variation
of wave amplitudes from year-to-year. Figure 4 presents the
monthly-mean amplitude of the wave at a latitude of 60◦ for
the northern and Southern Hemisphere. The height of the
stratopause is indicated by a line on each figure. The approx-
imate position of the stratopause, has been derived using a
4th order polynomial fit to the Aura temperature profile as
per McDonald et al. (2011).
From the figure it can be seen that there is a clear seasonal
cycle in wave amplitude that approximately repeats from
year to year. In particular, the wave amplitude maximises in
winter and has a minimum in summer, but with small ampli-
tudes present in the MLT for most years observed. There is
considerable interannual variability evident. For example, in
most of the winters the peak northern-hemisphere wave am-
plitudes were ∼6 K, but is still weakly present in the summer
at the greater heights. The wave is generally present through-
out the year at heights greater than about 80 km where it can
reach up to ∼3 K in the northern summer-time.
Wave amplitudes in the Southern Hemisphere are gener-
ally smaller than in the Northern Hemisphere, but occasion-
ally reach up to ∼6 K in the winter-time, i.e., August 2008.
This wave, as in the Northern Hemisphere, is also present
throughout most of the year at greater heights. Finally, it can
be seen that there is often a local minimum in winter-time
wave amplitude around the stratopause.
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K. A. Day et al.: The 16-day wave in the middle atmosphere 4153
Fig. 4. Time series of monthly-mean temperature amplitudes from 2004 to 2010 for the 16-day wave at a latitude 60◦ for both hemispheres.
Also plotted is the stratopause height as a red contour line.
To investigate the seasonal structure of the wave further,
Fig. 5 presents the monthly-mean wave amplitude in the
MLT (65–95 km) as a function of latitude for 2005. The
figure reveals that wave amplitudes have an equatorial min-
imum in all months. Around the equinoxes the wave is si-
multaneously present in both hemispheres and maximises at
latitudes of ∼60◦. Near the solstices, the wave is largely con-
fined to the winter hemisphere and appears much reduced in
the summer hemisphere. It is notable that, despite the largest
amplitudes occurring in the winter hemisphere, there is still
small but some small wave amplitudes in summer, e.g., in
the Southern Hemisphere in December and February and in
the Northern Hemisphere in August. Similar behaviour is
observed for other years of data (not shown for reasons of
space).
The seasonal and long-term variability suggested above
can be investigated further by considering latitude-height
contour plots of monthly-mean wave amplitude. An exam-
ple representative year of this analysis is presented here in
Fig. 6. Figure 6 shows the monthly-mean Aura temperature
amplitudes for 2005, with monthly-mean UKMO zonal wind
contours and the stratopause height over plotted.
The summer-time wave can be seen to maximise in August
and December for the northern and souther hemisphere re-
spectively at MLT heights of ∼80–100 km. The winter-time
wave in both hemispheres maximises in both the stratosphere
and the MLT, polewards of ∼25◦ latitude. The stratopause
height, plotted in red on Fig. 6 generally shows the separa-
tion between the stratosphere and MLT maxima. Amplitudes
are generally greater in the Northern Hemisphere reaching
∼6 K c.f. ∼4 K in the Southern Hemisphere. The tendency
for wave amplitudes to decrease at heights above ∼80 km
was also reported in the radar studies of the polar MLT 16-
day wave by Day and Mitchell (2010).
Larger temperature wave amplitudes correspond to
stronger zonal winds, as can be seen in Fig. 6. For example,
in January and December Northern Hemisphere the ampli-
tudes reach ∼6 K where the winds exceed 50 m s−1.
In the summer hemisphere the wave is largely absent.
However, some wave activity is present at heights above
∼80 km at middle and high latitudes and also at heights be-
low the stratopause at high latitudes. With regard to these
observations of the 16-day wave below the stratopause, we
note that Williams and Avery (1992) also reported significant
wave amplitudes at heights below 30 km throughout most of
the year measured at Poker Flat (65◦ N).
The regular seasonal cycle present in Figs. 4, 5 and 6
means that a composite-month analysis can be used to re-
veal a representative seasonal behaviour. Figure 7 presents
the 12 composite months of the entire seasonal cycle. In
each month the data from all years of observation have been
averaged. Also plotted on the figure are the monthly-mean
zonal winds from the UKMO climatology and the approx-
imate stratopause height derived from the Aura MLS tem-
peratures (as above). Note that the Aura and UKMO data
are coincident in time making comparisons of climatological
average behaviour possible.
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4154 K. A. Day et al.: The 16-day wave in the middle atmosphere
Fig. 5. The monthly-mean temperature amplitude of the 16-day
wave as a function of latitude at heights of ∼65–95 km for 2005.
From the figure it can be seen that:
1. Wave amplitudes are largest in the winter hemisphere
and are larger in the Northern Hemisphere than the
Southern Hemisphere.
2. Stratospheric wave amplitudes in winter tend to max-
imise at the heights and latitudes where the zonal winds
are the most strongly eastward. For example, in De-
cember the strongest zonal winds of ∼50 m s−1 occur
at a latitude of ∼55◦ N and a height of ∼45 km which
coincides with the largest-amplitude occurrence of the
wave. Similar behaviour in the stratosphere can be seen
in all months.
3. The wave is usually less than 1 K in amplitude in re-
gions of westward zonal wind, which accounts for the
wave’s absence in the summer stratosphere and lower
mesosphere.
4. Throughout the year the largest wave amplitudes tend to
occur at latitudes near 60◦.
5. In all months the wave amplitudes are usually very
small at the equatorial latitudes.
6. In most months of winter, spring and autumn there is a
minimum in wave amplitude around the stratopause.
7. In most summer months in both hemispheres small but
significant wave amplitudes are evident in the upper
mesosphere and lower stratosphere (above and below
the region of strong westward winds).
8. Near the equinoxes, the wave is present in both hemi-
spheres simultaneously. At these times the zonal winds
are either eastward or weakly westward in both hemi-
spheres.
3.2 Interannual variability
The above results show that there is considerable interannual
variability in the observed amplitude of the wave. We will
now consider three particular aspects of this variability. The
first is to investigate the suggestion that the wave observed
in the summer-time MLT has been ducted across the equator
from the stratosphere of the winter hemisphere and so might
display a correlation in wave amplitude between the two re-
gions. The second is to investigate the observationally-based
suggestion that the amplitude of the wave in the summer-
time MLT varies from year to year in response to a filtering
effect caused by the winds of the equatorial QBO (a mech-
anism that, of course, requires that the summer-time wave
is actually being ducted from the winter hemisphere). The
third aspect investigated is the suggestion that major sudden
stratospheric warmings (SSWs) have a suppressing effect on
the wave amplitudes (See Sect. 1).
Firstly, we will consider the relationship between the
wave amplitudes observed simultaneously in the summer-
time MLT and the winter stratosphere. If the summer-time
wave is indeed ducted across from the winter hemisphere,
then we might expect a correlation between wave amplitudes
in the two regions. Examination of the amplitudes can thus
provide a simple test of this ducting hypothesis. To carry out
the test, we calculated wave amplitudes for each month as an
average amplitude measured within a representative height-
latitude “box” covering, (i) heights of 80–96 km and latitudes
of 50–75◦ to represent the summer MLT at the heights where
radar and satellite observations show the wave to reach max-
imum amplitude, and (ii) heights of 35–45 km and latitudes
of 50–75◦ for the winter stratosphere. This process allows a
simple measure of wave amplitude to be estimated for each
region for each month.
For each summer month we calculated the mean amplitude
in the MLT and stratospheric boxes. For each, we then sub-
tracted the average amplitude observed for that month over
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K. A. Day et al.: The 16-day wave in the middle atmosphere 4155
Fig. 6. Monthly-mean temperature amplitudes of the 16-day wave for 2005. Also plotted are the 2005 UKMO monthly-mean zonal winds
(m s−1) as contour lines and the stratopause height as a red contour line.
the entire data set yielding amplitude perturbations for each
month in each year. We then correlated these perturbations
for each summer season to see if, for example, larger than
average amplitudes in the winter stratosphere were accom-
panied by larger than average amplitudes in the mesosphere
of the opposite hemisphere.
Figure 8 presents the monthly-mean summer-time MLT
wave amplitude perturbations for the Northern Hemisphere
plotted against the simultaneously-observed winter strato-
spheric amplitude perturbations for the months of June, July
and August. The correlation between the two regions is
+0.17, suggesting that there is a small connection between
the amplitude of the wave in the two regions.
Figure 9 presents an identical analysis for the summer
months of December–February in the Southern Hemisphere.
Here the correlation is +0.29, suggesting that there is a small
connection between wave amplitudes in the two regions.
Further, the correlation between the perturbations in
monthly-mean amplitudes in the two regions for all of the
summer months (irrespective of hemisphere, i.e. all summer
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4156 K. A. Day et al.: The 16-day wave in the middle atmosphere
Fig. 7. Composite-month temperature amplitudes for the 16-day wave in each month of the year, August 2004–May 2010. Also plotted are
the UKMO composite monthly-mean zonal winds (m s−1) as contour lines and the stratopause height as a red contour line.
Fig. 8. Northern summer-time wave amplitudes for the winter
stratosphere and summer mesosphere.
MLT c.f. all winter stratosphere) is calculated to be +0.22,
suggesting that there is a small correlation between the am-
plitude of the wave in the two regions.
The second aspect of interannual variability that we in-
vestigated is the suggestion that the summer-time wave am-
plitudes are influenced by the phase of the QBO such that
larger summer-time wave amplitudes occur when the QBO
winds are eastward. A simplistic but clear method to test for
a possible QBO modulation is to sort the MLT summer-time
wave amplitudes by the phase of the QBO. Here we used
QBO winds at a height of 10 hPa calculated from the FUB
Fig. 9. Southern summer-time wave amplitudes for the winter
stratosphere and summer mesosphere.
database. This measure of QBO winds is used because it en-
ables direct comparison with the results of Espy et al. (1997);
Hibbins et al. (2009), although we also examined how the re-
sults varied using winds for pressure levels between 70 and
10 hPa. The wave amplitudes were calculated in “boxes”, as
described above for the summertime MLT.
Figure 10 presents the monthly-mean wave amplitudes
plotted against the corresponding QBO winds at 10 hPa for
the Northern Hemisphere. Considering each month in turn,
and averaging the wave amplitudes measured in the same
month in different years for which the phase of the QBO
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K. A. Day et al.: The 16-day wave in the middle atmosphere 4157
Fig. 10. Mean summer-time temperature amplitudes of the 16-day
wave in the MLT at heights from ∼80–96 km and latitudes of 50–
75◦ N as a function of QBO zonal winds at 10 hPa.
is the same, the mean wave amplitudes for the eastward
and westward phases of the QBO, respectively, are 0.86 K
and 0.71 K for June, 0.61 K and 0.68 K for July, 1.67 K
and 1.19 K for August. The seasonal means for the ampli-
tudes sorted by QBO phase are 1.17± 0.19 K for the east-
ward phase of the QBO and 0.86±0.09 K for the westward
phase (the uncertainty being the standard error on the mean).
From these results we conclude that in the Northern Hemi-
sphere there was no significant difference in the amplitude of
the summertime mesospheric 16-day wave between eastward
and westward phases of the QBO in the years 2004–2010.
Figure 11 presents an identical analysis applied to data
from the Southern Hemisphere. This analysis yields mean
amplitudes for eastward phase and westward phases of the
QBO, respectively, of 0.95 K and 0.93 K for December,
0.73 K and 0.93 K for January and 1.13 K and 1.46 K for
February. The seasonal means sorted by QBO phase are
0.94±0.14 K for the eastward phase of the QBO and 1.11±
0.10 K for the westward phase. This might suggest a small
but significant tendency for larger summer-time MLT ampli-
tudes to occur during westward phases of the 10 hPa QBO
(i.e., opposite to the results of Espy et al. (1997)). How-
ever, for reasons we will explore below, we believe that in
February 2006 and February 2009 the amplitude of the 16-
day wave in the Northern Hemisphere throughout the strato-
sphere and MLT was suppressed by the influence of a major
SSW that occurred there in the previous month. On the as-
sumption that reduced wave amplitudes in the winter hemi-
sphere would in turn lead to reduced amplitudes in any wave
observed in the summer MLT after being ducted across the
equator, we therefore recalculated the seasonal mean ampli-
Fig. 11. Mean summer-time temperature amplitudes of the 16-day
wave in the MLT at heights from ∼80–96 km and latitudes of 50–
75◦ S as a function of QBO zonal winds at 10 hPa.
tudes with February 2006 and 2009 removed. In this case, the
seasonal-mean MLT wave amplitudes become 0.98±0.16 K
for the eastward phase of the QBO and 1.05±0.08 K for the
westward phase – not significantly different.
Considering the above analysis, we therefore conclude that
the observations we have presented do not demonstrate a
significant modulation of the amplitude of the summer-time
MLT 16-day wave by the equatorial QBO winds (note that
we also explored the impact on the analysis of sorting the
amplitudes by the phase of the QBO winds at different pres-
sure levels, but found this did not significantly change this
conclusion).
Finally, as mentioned, we note that two major SSW oc-
curred in the Northern Hemisphere in January 2006 and Jan-
uary 2009 (a major warming being defined as a reversal of the
winds at 10 hPa at a latitude of 60◦). It is known that major
SSW can have dampening effect on planetary waves at high
latitudes. In particular, it has been observed that planetary-
wave amplitudes can be suppressed after major SSW events
(e.g. Alexander and Shepherd, 2010). If the ducting hypoth-
esis is correct, then the MLT summer-time wave originates
in the winter hemisphere and so any changes in wave am-
plitude due to major SSW may be reflected in reduced wave
amplitudes in the summer MLT of the opposite hemisphere.
To see if such effects are present in our analysis, we ex-
amined the UKMO stratospheric winds and temperatures at
10 hPa to characterise the two major SSW. Figure 12 presents
contours of these zonal-mean winds and temperatures for
the six northern-hemisphere winters observed (the Southern
Hemisphere is not considered because no major SSW oc-
curred there during the observations). From the figure it can
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4158 K. A. Day et al.: The 16-day wave in the middle atmosphere
Fig. 12. Daily UKMO temperatures for the major SSW’s in the
Northern Hemisphere winters of 2004/2005 to 2009/2010. Also
plotted are the UKMO daily zonal winds (m s−1) as contour lines.
be seen that in January 2006 and 2009, the zonal winds re-
versed and temperatures increased considerably.
Figure 13 presents the sequence of wave amplitudes,
UKMO background winds and stratopause heights for Jan-
uary in the successive years observed. From the figure it can
be seen that, although wave amplitudes are not particularly
high in the winter hemisphere in January of 2006 and 2009,
they are at least comparable to those in January of 2007 and
2008.
Figure 14 presents an identical treatment of the successive
Februarys observed. In this case, however, it can be seen that
wave amplitudes in the winter hemisphere in 2006 and 2009
were reduced to about half compared to the other years. Us-
ing the same analysis as above, the wave amplitudes in the
winter hemisphere stratospheric “box” were 1.5 K and 2.3 K
in 2006 and 2009, compared with 4.7, 6.1, 9.9 and 3.4 K in
2005, 2007, 2008 and 2010. We therefore conclude that, at
least for the two major SSW observed, the stratospheric wave
amplitudes in the winter hemisphere were significantly re-
duced in the month following a major SSW.
Fig. 13. Monthly-mean Aura temperature amplitudes for post
Northern Hemisphere major SSW’s, January 2005–2010. Also plot-
ted are the UKMO composite monthly-mean zonal winds (m s−1)
as contour lines and the stratopause height as a red contour line.
4 Discussion
The seasonal variability of wave amplitudes described above
can be compared with those reported by ground based obser-
vations made at particular latitudes. The majority of these
studies report the wave in the MLT. Ground based stud-
ies include e.g. Williams and Avery (1992); Espy and Witt
(1996); Jacobi (1998); Mitchell et al. (1999); Luo et al.
(2000, 2002a,b); Hibbins et al. (2009); Day and Mitchell
(2010). Only some of these studies measured temperatures,
including Espy and Witt (1996) and Espy et al. (1997) who
used a Michelson interferometer to measure OH rotational
temperatures near the mesopause over Stockholm (60◦ N).
They observed the 16-day wave and reported MLT tempera-
ture amplitudes of up to 5 K. Day and Mitchell (2010) used
a meteor radar to measure temperatures in the polar meso-
sphere over Esrange (68◦ N) and Rothera (68◦ S). They re-
ported instantaneous temperature amplitudes of up to 10 K
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4149–4161, 2011 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/4149/2011/

K. A. Day et al.: The 16-day wave in the middle atmosphere 4159
Fig. 14. Monthly-mean Aura temperature amplitudes for post
Northern Hemisphere major SSW’s, February 2005–2010. Also
plotted are the UKMO composite monthly-mean zonal winds
(m s−1) as contour lines and the stratopause height as a red con-
tour line.
in winter and 5 K in summer. These reported summer-time
temperature amplitudes are larger than those presented here
measured by Aura MLS. However, this difference is very
likely because these studies reported temperature amplitude
related to short-lived maxima, whereas our results are based
on monthly means.
A number of modelling studies have examined the 16-
day wave in the middle atmosphere. Forbes et al. (1995);
Miyoshi (1999); Luo et al. (2002b) used a variety of differ-
ent models and reported significant wave amplitudes present
in both the stratosphere and MLT of the winter hemisphere.
All show an approximately similar latitudinal structure with
maximum amplitudes occurring at middle to high latitudes.
However, wave amplitude is either absent or significantly re-
duced in the summer in all three models, (see below for fur-
ther discussion).
As noted earlier, the 16-day wave is largely absent (less
than 1 K in amplitude) from the summer-time middle atmo-
sphere. However, there are two relatively restricted regions
of the summer-time atmosphere where wave activity is nev-
ertheless present in our observations.
The first of these is in the lower stratosphere at middle
and high latitudes. We suggest that the presence of the wave
here is because the zonal background winds are less than the
zonal phase speed for a particular latitude and the wave is
thus trapped below this height, but free to propagate below.
Similar behaviour is observed in the Northern Hemisphere
in June-August. The ground-based observations of Williams
and Avery (1992) made by a Mesosphere-Stratosphere-
Tropsphere (MST) radar at Poker Flat (65◦ N) reported sig-
nificant wave activity around the summer tropopause, rein-
forcing the suggestion that the wave is present in the lower
stratosphere in summer. The models of Forbes et al. (1995);
Miyoshi (1999) also indicate small but significant wave ac-
tivity in the high-latitude summer-time lower stratosphere.
This wave activity most likely arises because the zonal winds
of this region of the atmosphere are not sufficiently strong to
prevent the wave from propagating.
The second region where the wave is observed in summer
is in the MLT at heights above those where the zonal wind
speed is likely to be greater than the zonal phase speed.
As discussed earlier, the 16-day summer-time wave can-
not have propagated upward through the atmosphere to the
MLT where we observe it because its propagation would be
prevented by the blocking effect of the zonal background
wind. To explain the observations of a summer-time MLT
16-day wave it has been hypothesised that the wave must
have been cross-equatorially ducted (e.g. Espy et al., 1997;
Jacobi, 1998; Luo et al., 2000; Hibbins et al., 2009).
Our results for the correlation of perturbations around the
mean wave amplitude between the summer-time MLT wave
and that of the winter stratospheric wave in the opposite
hemisphere reveal a small correlation, suggesting that larger
wave amplitude in the winter stratosphere are accompanied
by larger wave amplitudes in the summer hemisphere. This
may suggest that there is some degree of ducting from the
winter stratosphere to the summer MLT, since if there were
no ducting we might expect no correlation. However, the fact
that the correlation is small suggest that there maybe other
sources of excitation of the wave in the summer-time MLT.
Our results suggest that there is no significant QBO mod-
ulation of 16-day wave amplitudes in the summer-time MLT.
However, such a modulation has been reported in some stud-
ies (e.g. Espy et al., 1997; Hibbins et al., 2009). One possi-
ble explanation for this discrepancy is that any such modu-
lation is intermittent and not a persistent feature of the MLT.
Support of this suggestion comes from the long-term stud-
ies of Luo et al. (2000) who reported 16 yr of MF radar data
recorded at Sakatoon (52◦ N). Luo et al. (2000) observed the
presence of the 16-day wave in the summer-time MLT. They
showed that the wave activity appeared to be modulated by
the QBO, but only in some years and only in some months.
This suggests that any QBO modulation may be intermittent
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4160 K. A. Day et al.: The 16-day wave in the middle atmosphere
in nature and this may be why the QBO modulation is not
observed in our data set.
Finally, our observation of reduced wave amplitudes im-
mediately after the major SSW events of 2006 and 2009 is
in good agreement with the similar observation reported by
Alexander and Shepherd (2010) for 2006.
5 Conclusions
The 16-day wave is a persistent, large-amplitude feature of
the winter stratosphere and MLT – at least in the seven years
of observations reported here. Monthly-mean wave ampli-
tudes exceed 6 K in most northern winters and 4 K in most
southern winters. Large wave amplitudes are confined to lati-
tudes poleward of ∼25◦. Smaller wave amplitudes are never-
theless observed in both hemispheres in the summer months,
where they reach ∼3 K. Summer-time wave amplitudes are
observed at heights up to ∼30 km in the lower stratosphere
and again at heights above ∼70 km in the MLT. This be-
haviour is interpreted as a consequence of wave/mean-flow
interactions. The wave in the summer-time MLT can there-
fore not have propagated from below.
There is a small correlation between the perturbations in
wave amplitude of the summer-time MLT and the winter
stratosphere of the opposite hemisphere. This suggest some
degree of inter hemispheric coupling and perhaps ducting of
the wave from winter to summer hemisphere.
Our observations do not suggest that the QBO modulates
the amplitude of the wave in the polar summer-time MLT.
The absence of such a QBO modulation maybe a conse-
quence of our comparatively short data set or an intermit-
tency in the modulation.
The major SSW events of the Northern Hemisphere winter
of 2006 and 2009 have an influence on the winter-time wave
amplitudes following the warming, in which they decrease
wave amplitudes to values of about half of those observed in
undisturbed years.
Edited by: W. Ward
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