An estimate of the expected earthquake rate at all possible magnitudes is needed for seismic hazard forecasts. Regional earthquake magnitude frequency distributions obey a negative exponential law (Gutenberg-Richter), but it is unclear if individual faults do. We add three new methods to calculate long-term California earthquake rupture rates to the existing Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3 efforts to assess method and parameter dependence on magnitude frequency results for individual faults. All solutions show strongly characteristic magnitude-frequency distributions on the San Andreas and other faults, with higher rates of large earthquakes than would be expected from a Gutenberg-Richter distribution. This is a necessary outcome that results from fitting high fault slip rates under the overall statewide earthquake rate budget. We find that input data choices can affect the nucleation magnitude-frequency distribution shape for the San Andreas Fault; solutions are closer to a Gutenberg-Richter distribution if the maximum magnitude allowed for earthquakes that occur away from mapped faults (background events) is raised above the consensus threshold of M = 7.6, if the moment rate for background events is reduced, or if the overall maximum magnitude is reduced from M = 8.5. We also find that participation magnitude-frequency distribution shapes can be strongly affected by slip rate discontinuities along faults that may be artifacts related to segment boundaries.
CITATION STYLE
Parsons, T., Geist, E. L., Console, R., & Carluccio, R. (2018). Characteristic Earthquake Magnitude Frequency Distributions on Faults Calculated From Consensus Data in California. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 123(12), 10,761-10,784. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JB016539
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