Ciclos políticos: um estudo sobre a relação entre flutuações econômicas e calendário eleitoral no Brasil, 1985-2006
Abstract
This article examines the hypothesis that policymakers are concerned not only with the maximization of social welfare, but that they influence the behavior of economic series, both before and after elections, in order to maximize the likelihood of their (re)election. Thus, the possibility of political opportunism in Brazil from 1985 to 2006 is tested using a model with auto-regressive and moving average components. The variables analyzed were GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, inflation rate, government expenditures and public deficit. A multivariate or VAR analysis is also performed. The main results are: i) there is evidence of pre-election opportunistic manipulation of the inflation rate in the period after the implementation of the Real Plan, as well as of unemployment and growth rates; ii) failure to reject the hypothesis of opportunistic actions on public expenditures and government deficit.
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