Temperature and precipitation from 16 climate models each using two emissions scenarios (lower B1 and mid-high A2) were used to characterize the range of potential climate changes for the Rio Lempa basin of Central America during the middle (2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) of the 21st century. A land surface model was applied to investigate the hydrologic impacts of these changes, focusing on inflow to two major hydropower reservoirs. By 2070-2099 the median warming relative to 1961-1990 was 1.9°C and 3.4°C under B1 and A2 emissions, respectively. For the same periods, the models project median precipitation decreases of 5.0% (B1) and 10.4% (A2). Median changes by 2070-2099 in reservoir inflow were 13% (B1) and 24% (A2), with largest flow reductions during the rising limb of the seasonal hydrograph, from June through September. Frequency of low flow years increases, implying decreases in firm hydropower capacity of 33% to 53% by 2070-2099.
CITATION STYLE
Maurer, E. P., Adam, J. C., & Wood, A. W. (2009). Climate model based consensus on the hydrologic impacts of climate change to the Rio Lempa basin of Central America. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13(2), 183–194. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-183-2009
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