Comparing solar photovoltaic and battery adoption in Ontario and Germany: an agent-based approach

Abstract

Background: We use Agent Based Models (ABMs) to study and contrast the projected adoption of integrated photovoltaic and battery systems in both Ontario, Canada and Bavaria, Germany. Methods: We carry out surveys in both jurisdictions to elicit Agent Based Model (ABM) model parameters and to learn the decision function that determines whether an agent purchases a system or not. We use our fitted ABMs to assess the impact of different policy variants on Solar Photovoltaic (PV) system adoption in both jurisdictions. Results: We find that different adoption behaviours exist in both jurisdictions, and that, in jurisdiction, of the polices that we considered, different policy incentives bring about the most significant increase in adoption. For example, reducing PV prices best increases adoption in Ontario but increasing the price of electricity would have the most significant impact in Germany. Conclusion: ABMs allow policy makers and PV/battery manufacturers to estimate the jurisdiction-specific impact of a range of policy prescriptions.