Debris-flow hazard assessment at regional scale by combining susceptibility mapping and radar rainfall

Abstract

This work presents a technique for debris flow (DF) hazard assessment able to be used in the framework of DF early warning systems at regional scale. The developed system is applied at subbasin scale and is based on the concepts of fuzzy logic to combine two ingredients: (i) DF subbasin susceptibility assessment based on geomorphological variables, and (ii) the magnitude of the rainfall situation as depicted from radar rainfall estimates. The output of the developed technique is a three-class hazard level ("low", "moderate" and "high") in each subbasin when a new radar rainfall map is available. The developed technique has been applied in a domain in the Eastern Pyrenees (Spain) from May to October 2010. The estimated hazard level stayed "low" during the entire period in 20% of the subbasins, while, in the most susceptible subbasins, the hazard level was at least moderate for up to10 days. Quantitative evaluation of the estimated hazard level was possible in a subbasin where debris flows were monitored during the analysis period. The technique was able to identify the 3 events observed in the catchment (1 debris flow and 2 hyperconcentrated flow events) and produced no false alarm.