ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS
Atmos. Sci. Let. 9: 214–221 (2008)
Published online 18 June 2008 in Wiley InterScience
(www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/asl.190
Eastern Antarctic Peninsula precipitation delivery
mechanisms: process studies and back trajectory
evaluation
Andrew Russell,1* Glenn R. McGregor2 and Gareth J. Marshall3
1Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
2Department of Geography, King’s College London, London, UK
3British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
*Correspondence to:
Andrew Russell, Centre for
Atmospheric Sciences, School of
Earth, Atmospheric and
Environmental Sciences, Simon
Building, University of
Manchester, Manchester, M13
9PL, UK.
E-mail: andrew.russell-
2@manchester.ac.uk
Received: 20 November 2007
Revised: 26 March 2008
Accepted: 12 May 2008
Abstract
The atmospheric circulation patterns that result in precipitation events at a site on the
eastern Antarctic Peninsula (AP) are investigated using back trajectories (BTs) driven by
ERA-40 data. Moisture delivery occurs from the east and west depending on the location
of blocking events in the South Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Observations are sparse in
this region, so our process studies compare the trajectories (and the ERA-40 fields from
which they were derived) with advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) satellite
images. It is found that the trajectories represent these transport mechanisms very well and
that they are relatively insensitive to the initial trajectory elevation. Copyright  2008 Royal
Meteorological Society
Keywords: moisture transport; ERA-40; Dolleman Island
1. Introduction
The atmospheric circulation patterns that deliver pre-
cipitation to the eastern Antarctic Peninsula (AP) have
been examined only recently in any depth; Russell
et al. (2004, 2006) have performed a cluster analy-
sis on back trajectories (BTs) for an eastern AP site
(Dolleman Island, hereafter DI, 70.3 ◦S, 60.5 ◦W) to
classify climatological precipitation delivery mecha-
nisms. Unusually, for a coastal Antarctic site, which
tend to be dominated by circumpolar westerlies (Sim-
monds et al. 2005), DI receives precipitation from the
east fairly regularly (∼43% of events). This ratio is
strongly dependant on the phase/strength of ENSO and
Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM), which
determine the propagation of high-pressure anomalies
to the high southern latitudes and the strength/location
of the circumpolar westerlies, respectively. In this arti-
cle, we examine individual events from the clusters
identified by Russell et al. (2006) in order to under-
stand these precipitation delivery mechanisms in more
depth. Such a study will also help in the effort to
understand the factors controlling the composition of
Antarctic surface snow (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2008).
Several BT analyses have been used in many mete-
orological investigations to determine the origin of
atmospheric air parcels. They are particularly use-
ful in the southern high latitudes where observations
are sparse and re-analyses and derived products, such
as BTs, are invaluable. For example, Harris (1992);
Reijmer et al. (2002) and Simmonds et al. (2003)
have all used BTs to identify the source of precipi-
tation at a number of Antarctic sites. However, the
assessment of BT models and their output is rel-
atively limited in the scientific literature. Pickering
et al. (1996) have demonstrated that BT model input
data can be more important, with respect to trajec-
tory reliability, than the model itself. More generally,
Stohl (1998) reviewed works using trajectory anal-
yses and the different trajectory models themselves,
including their structure, sources of error and differ-
ent calculation techniques. One of his most important
conclusions, which was expanded upon by Stohl and
Seibert (1998), was that three-dimensional trajectory
models are more accurate than other methods (e.g.
isentropic or isobaric). Specific Northern Hemisphere
mid-latitude cases have been assessed by Baumann
and Stohl (1997), Stohl et al. (2001) and Riddle et al.
(2006), who used altitude-controlled balloons released
from the eastern United States and, of particular rele-
vance here, found that the modelled trajectories were
sensitive to the presence of a narrow jet, but no such
assessment has been performed for the high southern
latitudes. Our second aim, therefore, is to add to these
studies by presenting a qualitative assessment of BTs
for their representation of the precipitation delivery
mechanisms to DI.
2. Data and methodology
The trajectory model used was provided by the British
Atmospheric Data Centre (www.badc.rl.ac.uk). This
Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Eastern Antarctic Peninsula precipitation delivery mechanisms 215
derives three-dimensional air parcel paths from six
hourly ECMWF re-analysis data (ERA-40) wind com-
ponents (u , v , omega) held on a 2.5◦ × 2.5◦ lati-
tude–longitude grid. This choice of input data was
deemed best, as ERA-40 has been shown to be par-
ticularly skilful in this region compared to other re-
analyses in the post-satellite era (Bromwich et al.,
2007). The model used a parcel advection scheme
summarised by Dritschel (1989) and Norton (1994).
The vertical component of the trajectory is linearly
interpolated between the pressure levels of ERA-40,
which decrease in resolution with increasing height.
The BTs were initiated from 850 hPa at 1200 UTC
from DI and data was output at six hourly intervals
for 5 days before the precipitation event. The initial
level choice of 850 hPa is discussed further.
Advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR)
satellite infrared (IR) imagery is used to understand
the circulation characteristics and validate the trajec-
tories. The images, which were taken by instruments
on the NOAA weather satellites, have been archived
at Rothera (67.6 ◦S, 68.1 ◦W) since mid-1993. These
polar orbiting satellites make around 14 orbits per day
and data is downloaded when a satellite passes within
a 3000-km radius of Rothera, which is a very well
located collection point, given the location of DI. The
images archived are sporadic, both temporally and spa-
tially, but are frequent enough to be of significant use.
This IR imagery is particularly powerful in presenting
cloud formations and height: high (low) cloud is gen-
erally cold (warm) and appears brightest (darkest) on
the images.
In the following sections, we present case studies
for five of the seven BT patterns (two easterly; one
northerly; four westerly) associated with the significant
precipitation events (i.e. greater than 3.6 mm day−1),
as identified by Russell et al. (2006) using daily ERA-
40 precipitation fields, which are calculated as a
forecast for a 24-h period (00-00 UTC) in the model.
The reliability of the ERA-40 precipitation data is an
issue as there is very limited data with which to verify
it. However, it is relatively well-correlated with the
DI ice core accumulation (Russell et al. 2004) and
there is no better alternative. The precipitation events
chosen for these studies were included because of the
availability and quality of the AVHRR images. These
cases have been shown to be representative of the
circulation characteristics in further investigations by
Russell (2005).
Figure 1 gives a preliminary view of the BTs
associated with these five significant precipitation
events and shows that they are relatively insensitive
to initial elevation. With the exception of the blue
BTs, which are dealt with later, the patterns are very
similar for the initial half of the BTs. After this, they
do tend to diverge a little, most likely because of
Figure 1. Sensitivity analysis of the BTs to the initial height level. (a–e) show the BT height for the 5 days before BT initiation at
950, 900, 850, 800, 750, 700, 650 and 600 hPa for the five events analysed in Section 3. (f) shows these BTs plotted in plan form
with the 850 hPa BT dotted as this is the one analysed in Section 3. The colours [darker shades indicate higher (lower) initial
pressure (elevation)] are consistent for (a–e) and (f), i.e. the same colour shows the same BT in plan and profile form.
Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society Atmos. Sci. Let. 9: 214–221 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/asl

216 A. Russell, G. R. McGregor and G. J. Marshall
the slant of the weather systems with altitude. In this
respect, the initial elevation that we choose is not so
important, although we do wish to use a level quite
close to the surface so that we are tracing the flow
of moist air parcels but above the elevation of DI
(398 m). However, as we are performing this analysis
near to the Peninsula (which is smoothed in the ERA-
40 model), it would be best to pick a level that is close
to the maximum elevation of the Peninsula in reality
(around 1.5 km) as some of the behaviour below this
may be unrealistic in the BT model; 850 hPa is a good
level to use with this goal in mind. The blue BTs
shown in Figure 1(c) represent somewhat a special
case, as 850 hPa is still a good initial level to choose
but for a different reason. In this case, as shown in
Section 3.3, the lowermost BTs move slowly over
the AP and develop on the lee side whilst the higher
BTs flow around the AP from the north. These are
important characteristics of lee cyclogenesis events
that sometimes deliver precipitation to DI. By contrast,
the BTs that come furthest from the west (Figure 1(e))
travel much faster and can flow over the orography
much easier.
3. Case studies of precipitation delivery
mechanisms
3.1. Precipitation from the east (Figure 2)
• Date: 3 January 2001
• Precipitation total: 8.7 mm
• Climatological mechanism frequency: 15%
• BT origin: 57.8 ◦S, 5.7 ◦W (29 December 2000)
• Other events in this range: 2 January 2001 (5.4 mm)
also from E
The mean sea level pressure (MSLP) for 12 UTC 29
December 2000 shows a low of 980 hPa to the north-
east of the AP at approximately 58 ◦S, 45 ◦W. This
is reflected in the AVHRR image with a developing
low-pressure system in the same position. The low
deepened to 964 hPa on 30 December 2000 and the
centre moved east by 5◦. The satellite image displays
a clear comma-shaped structure associated with this
depression. This low drew moisture in from the South
Atlantic as a ridge of high pressure pushed southwards
at around 5 ◦W, similar to patterns observed by Noone
et al. (1999). On 31 December 2000, the low over
the Weddell Sea (east of the AP) moved south and
further east and remained relatively deep (968 hPa).
The ridge remained largely in the same position. The
development of the cyclonic system can be seen in the
AVHRR images as well as a calm region immediately
to the east of the AP, which relates to another tongue
of relatively high pressure. The depression deepened to
964 hPa on 1 January 2001 and moved west to about
57 ◦S, 40 ◦W. It then appears to have remained largely
stationary as a result of blocking extending from the
South Atlantic (now 1024 hPa at 35 ◦S, 10 ◦E). The
BT, MSLP and relative humidity (RH) patterns now
indicate that moist air flowed directly to DI from
the east. The depression attained its lowest pressure
(960 hPa) on 2 January 2001 and moved back east to
60 ◦S, 10 ◦W. By 3 January 2001, the low started to
fill and dissipate, as reflected in the satellite imagery.
Despite this, the system was still established enough
to have brought precipitation to DI, as the ERA-40
MSLP and RH data imply.
The BT replicates the flow of moist air seen in the
AVHRR images very well. Meteorologically, whilst
the low is essential in driving the moisture delivery
from the east of the AP, it is the blocking to the east
Figure 2. Animation of atmospheric conditions for the 5 days leading to the precipitation event on 3 January 2001. The left panel
shows IR images from the AVHRR data at sporadic intervals (between around 6 and 12 h depending on satellite pass time). The
shading and contours on the right panel show MSLP (contour interval: 5 hPa) from ERA-40 every 6 h. The right panel also includes
regions of high (>95%) relative humidity (RH; white stippling) at 1000 hPa and the BT co-ordinates every 6 h (white squares). The
still image shows the final time step of the animation.
Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society Atmos. Sci. Let. 9: 214–221 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/asl

Eastern Antarctic Peninsula precipitation delivery mechanisms 217
of the Weddell Sea that forces the low and moisture
to stall in this region.
3.2. Precipitation from the north-east (Figure 3)
• Date: 12 February 2001
• Precipitation total: 9.7 mm
• Climatological mechanism frequency: 28%
• BT origin: 60.0 ◦S, 44.7 ◦W (7 February 2001)
• Other events in this range: 10 February 2001
(6.1 mm) and 11 February 2001 (4.0 mm) both also
from NE
There are two features worthy of note on 6 Febru-
ary 2001: firstly, a low (58 ◦S, 40 ◦W) over the Wed-
dell Sea; and a second low (62 ◦S, 110 ◦W) over the
Amundsen–Bellingshausen Sea (west of the AP; here-
after ABS). Both had central pressures of 972 hPa.
The eastern-most end of the depression over the ABS,
with the cloud patterns resembling a baroclinic leaf
(i.e. early development of a comma-shaped cyclone),
can be seen in the AVHRR images. Both systems
moved east on 7 February 2001, with the Weddell Sea
system filling (980 hPa) and the ABS low remaining
at 972 hPa. The AVHRR images show that the ABS
depression developed a clearly cyclonic structure and
there is evidence of calm conditions over the Weddell
Sea. On 8 February 2001 the ABS system was deep-
ening (960 hPa) and continuing eastward. The low
initially over the Weddell Sea had no further influ-
ence over the eastern AP, as the appearance of a ridge
of high pressure over the western Weddell Sea pre-
vented this. The calm conditions associated with this
high can be appreciated from the nature of the satel-
lite image. The progression of the ridge continued on
9 February 2001, having now reached 1004 hPa as
far south as 68 ◦S. This had an impact on the ABS
system, now having filled to 984 hPa, which stopped
moving eastward and spread north along the Penin-
sula. The satellite images show some movement of air
towards the northern tip of the Peninsula consistent
with the isobars parallel to the Peninsula on its east-
ern side. The low re-deepened to 972 hPa and moved
to the east and north (58 ◦S, 58 ◦W) on 10 February
2001, which created a strong east–west pressure gra-
dient from the South Atlantic to the eastern AP. The
AVHRR images show high cloud to the north-east of
the Peninsula, which had taken on a cyclonic structure.
There are also distinctive patterns of shower clouds,
indicating the advection of moist air around the depres-
sion, which reached 960 hPa on 11 February 2001 and
moved east whilst the ridge moved northward by a few
degrees. The AVHRR image from 1832 UTC on this
day may represent the system at its peak of precip-
itation delivery to DI as it shows a well-developed
cyclone to the north-east of the Peninsula ‘pumping’
moist air towards DI, as manifest in the MSLP and
RH data. On 12 February 2001, the low remained deep
(960 hPa) and moved about 5◦ to the east, as the high
pressure retreated north allowing the westerly regime
to dominate once more, but the satellite imagery still
shows that moist air was being transported from the
north-east towards DI.
As with the previous case, this event clearly shows
the importance of a low-pressure system and a block-
ing high to the east to allow the system to remain
in the AP region and also shows that the BT model
can represent the patterns seen in the AVHRR images
very well. The orography and a region of high pres-
sure over the South Pacific also played important roles
in slowing the circumpolar flow.
3.3. Precipitation from the north-west (Figure 4)
• Date: 17 January 2001
• Precipitation total: 5.1 mm
Figure 3. Animation of atmospheric conditions for the 5 days leading to the precipitation event on 12 February 2001. See the
caption of Figure 2 for plot details.
Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society Atmos. Sci. Let. 9: 214–221 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/asl

218 A. Russell, G. R. McGregor and G. J. Marshall
Figure 4. Animation of atmospheric conditions for the 5 days leading to the precipitation event on 17 January 2001. See the
caption of Figure 2 for plot details.
• Climatological mechanism frequency: 15%
• BT origin: 66.7 ◦S, 64.0 ◦W (12 January 2001)
• Other events in this range: 15 January 2001
(4.9 mm) also from NW
This case focuses on a low of 972 hPa initially (11
January 2001) centred on 62 ◦S, 120 ◦W, which con-
tinued to move eastwards and fill slowly on 12 to 13
January 2001. On this latter date, the development of
a low-pressure centre (984 hPa) can be seen in the lee
of the peninsula alongside observations of warm low-
level cloud starting to appear on the AVHRR image at
the same time. A ridge of high pressure developed over
the South Atlantic on 14 January 2001 – this slowed
the eastward progression of the low (now at 972 hPa),
which in fact moved westward (54 ◦S, 90 ◦W). The
low pressure in the lee of the Peninsula filled slightly
(988 hPa), but the alignment of isobars suggests that
air was flowing perpendicularly towards and over the
western side of the Peninsula enhancing the lee cyclo-
genesis – there is evidence in the AVHRR images of a
small cyclone in the southern Weddell Sea to support
this. The low over the ABS moved east again (60 ◦S,
70 ◦W) on 15 January 2001 and the lee side low devel-
oped a defined centre of 980 hPa just to the east of
the Peninsula. The significant precipitation event on
this day is likely to be related to this lee side low
and it is an interesting observation, especially as such
events are likely to become more common as the SAM
index becomes more positive. More importantly, the
RH data shows the flow of moisture from the south-
east Pacific towards the AP. The lee-side low moved
towards the southern Weddell Sea on 16 January 2001
and the low over the Bellingshausen Sea moved east
and south to sit over the tip of the Peninsula. The low-
pressure centre (now at 976 hPa) moved over the AP
towards the Weddell Sea on 17 January 2001, thus,
allowing the atmospheric flow to loop around the AP
and towards DI as seen in the BT and AVHRR images.
The high pressure over the South Pacific again slowed
the circumpolar progression of lows influencing the
AP region.
3.4. Precipitation from the east and then west
(Figure 5)
• Date: 28 November 1998 from E
• Precipitation total: 24.9 mm
• BT origin: 70.4 ◦S, 37.0 ◦W (23 November 1998)
• Other events in this range: 29 November 1998
(16.2 mm) and 30 November 1998 (6.2 mm), both
from W
This case shows a period, where significant precip-
itation events are grouped into different classes by
Russell et al. (2006), which occurred within 2 days
of each other. With the AVHRR images, we aim to
show whether this is realistic.
In the early stages of this case (23 November 1998),
a deep low (960 hPa) was observed at 59 ◦S, 170 ◦W.
This low moved east on 28 November 1998 (62 ◦S,
160 ◦W) and a new low-pressure centre of 976 hPa
(63 ◦S, 100 ◦W) was also developing/splitting from the
eastern-most end of the depression over the ABS. The
low-pressure centre furthest west started to dissipate
(968 hPa) on 26 November 1998 and the new centre
over the ABS (now at 63 ◦S, 85 ◦W) deepened to that
same pressure. The AVHRR images show that the new
low had a well-developed cyclonic structure and was
moving towards the Peninsula. It continued to deepen
on 27 November 1998 and moved eastwards. The
penetration of a blocking high over the Weddell Sea,
synonymous with precipitation delivery to the eastern
Peninsula, as seen in Sections 3.1 and 3.2, occurred
on this day whilst the satellite images show the
cyclone starting to cross the Peninsula and the bright-
white cloud signature – the high cloud – implies that
Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society Atmos. Sci. Let. 9: 214–221 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/asl

Eastern Antarctic Peninsula precipitation delivery mechanisms 219
Figure 5. Animation of atmospheric conditions for the 7 days leading to the precipitation events on 28 November 1998 (BT
shown in white squares) and 30 November 1998 (BT shown in white triangles). See the caption of Figure 2 for plot details.
the orography of the Peninsula, in turn, started to
impact the cyclone and provide conditions for a
large precipitation event to occur. On 28 November
1998, the low moved directly over the Peninsula
and continued to deepen (956 hPa). The ERA-40
precipitation total for this day was 24.9 mm and, given
the combination of the deep low, the blocking high and
the orographic forcing, an event of this size is feasible.
Indeed, the RH data shows very moist air moving in
from the central South Pacific and then down the east
coast of the AP. This evidence supports the occurrence
of a large precipitation event at DI. However, the
BT for this day originates from the southern Weddell
Sea, not from the north-west as the RH and AVHRR
data show. This contradiction is caused by the low
temporal resolution of the precipitation data (24 h),
as the large event appears to happen towards the end
of 28 November 1998 (see the AVHRR images), it is
grouped with the easterly BT of that day, whereas it
should have been grouped with the westerlies, which
arrive the following day, as described further later.
This is an issue with the precipitation data rather than
the BTs.
The low moved right across the Peninsula on
29 November 1998 and the accompanying satellite
images corroborate this. This led to a precipitation
event where the moisture was drawn largely from the
north-west of DI, as we discussed earlier, and the flow
from the west continued on 30 November 1998.
3.5. Precipitation from the west (Figure 6)
• Date: 2 October 1995
• Precipitation total: 4.4 mm
• Climatological mechanism frequency: 42%
• BT origin: 63.1 ◦S, 139.6 ◦W (27 September 1995)
There was a deep cyclone (948 hPa) to the west of
DI at 62 ◦S, 10 ◦W on 28 September 1995 and there
was an unbroken circumpolar flow, including flow
through the Drake Passage. This pattern resulted from
several low-pressure systems close to the Antarctic
continent and some well-defined high-pressure cen-
tres further north. The low to the west of the Penin-
sula advanced south and east to 67 ◦S, 105 ◦W and
deepened to 944 hPa on 29 September 1995 when
it began to span the Peninsula. The AVHRR images
show a small but well-defined cyclone to the west
of the Peninsula and an interesting formation of very
high/cold cloud along the eastern coast driven by the
cyclonic flow of air around the low. By 30 Septem-
ber 1995, the depression appeared to have crossed the
Peninsula and the centre was over the Weddell Sea
with a minimum pressure of 968 hPa. Most of the high
cloud and motion of air also appears to be over the
Weddell Sea area, as seen in the satellite images. There
was still a well-defined circumpolar flow maintained
with the presence of low pressure at high latitudes and
high pressure over the mid-latitudes. The depressions
over the ABS and the Weddell Sea were starting to
show less well defined structures by 1 October 1995.
Despite this, the satellite imagery shows a cyclonic
system to the west of the Peninsula and a clear flow of
cumulus from the west to the centre of cyclone. The
pattern of circumpolar isobars also remained strong.
On the day of the significant precipitation event (2
October 1995), there was evidence of some frontal
interaction between the air flowing over the Peninsula
and the colder, stationary air over the Weddell Sea.
This led to precipitation in the area and some of this
was delivered to DI.
In summary, there is a remarkable visible correlation
between the orientation of the isobars over the ABS
(as also inferred from the AVHRR images) and the
BT path. It appears that this precipitation delivery
mechanism relies on a strong north-westerly flow of
air over the Peninsula to DI.
Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society Atmos. Sci. Let. 9: 214–221 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/asl

220 A. Russell, G. R. McGregor and G. J. Marshall
Figure 6. Animation of atmospheric conditions for the 5 days leading to the precipitation event on 2 October 1995. See the
caption of Figure 2 for plot details.
4. Conclusions
We have presented a number of process studies of
significant precipitation events at an eastern AP site
with a view to: assessing the accuracy and sensitivity
to the initial level of BTs that were run; identifying the
moisture source of the precipitation; and describe the
meteorology of this region in more detail. Given the
evidence here, we have every reason to recommend
the quality of the ERA-40 data and the accuracy
of BTs derived therefrom in the post-satellite era
examined here. Furthermore, sensitivity studies show
that, for BTs initiated near the AP, 850 hPa is a good
initial level to allow the BTs to interact realistically
with the topography. However, in studies examining
precipitation events, the reliability of the precipitation
data needs careful consideration.
From a meteorological point of view, the AVHRR
images have corroborated the climatological findings
of Russell et al. (2004, 2006) on an individual case
basis (i.e. precipitation events can be forced from the
east and west of the site). In particular, the importance
of blocking on both sides of the AP was highlighted as
well as the orographic barrier of the AP itself, which
was only penetrated in one BT class.
Acknowledgements
We wish to thank the Natural Environment Research Council’s
British Antarctic Survey who provided the AVHRR data; the
BADC for the air parcel trajectory and re-analysis data; the
University of Birmingham for funding this work with a GEES
studentship; and three anonymous reviewers whose comments
considerably improved the article.
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Copyright  2008 Royal Meteorological Society Atmos. Sci. Let. 9: 214–221 (2008)
DOI: 10.1002/asl