Do elites matter in Russian foreign policy? The gap between self-perception and influence

Abstract

This article analyzes the findings of the Survey of Russian Elites from the perspective of Russian elites’ perceptions of their individual and group influence on Russian foreign policy. In the current Russian elite structure, state enterprise managers, executive branch officials, and military/security officers are far more influential than members of other sub-groups when it comes to foreign policy. However, the survey results show that despite being members of the elite, respondents in all sub-groups generally found their ability to influence foreign policy decisions to be quite limited. That being said, the data show that representatives of less influential elite sub-groups are more confident about their impact on the decision-making process than representatives of more influential elite sub-groups. As such, there is a gap between elite sub-groups’ perception of their influence and their actual level of individual and group influence on Russian foreign policy. The article discusses various manifestations of this gap, as well as possible causes and implications.