A “Ferguson Effect” on 2016 Presidential Vote Preference? Findings from a Framing Experiment Examining “Shy Voters” and Cues Related to Policing and Social Unrest*

Abstract

Objectives: This study explored the sociopolitical influence of controversies related to policing and “law and order” during the 2016 presidential campaign. Following incidences of social unrest sparked by lethal confrontations between police officers and people of color, Donald Trump condemned protesters and expressed unwavering support for the police, while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders expressed empathy with communities of color and called for criminal justice reform. Method: We conducted a framing experiment to test whether exposure to images designed to evoke a range of hostile to benign police–civilian interactions affected respondents’ vote preference in the lead-up to the presidential election. Results: We found that exposure to an image of police–civilian interactions decreased the likelihood that a respondent would choose not to express a vote preference. This effect was most pronounced among political independents and respondents low in political awareness. We also found that exposure to a picture of the militarized police response to protesters in Ferguson, Missouri, significantly altered candidate choice, and this effect varied across political partisanship. Conclusions: We conclude that electoral rhetoric about crime, mass protests, and “law and order” continues to be impactful in 21st-century American politics. We also find some evidence consistent with the “shy Trump voters” hypothesis that some people were unwilling to publicly disclose their preference for Donald Trump in pre-election polls.