Forecasting satellite trajectories by interpolating hybrid orbit propagators

Abstract

A hybrid orbit propagator based on the analytical integration of the Kepler problem is designed to determine the future position and velocity of any orbiter, usually an artificial satellite or space debris fragment, in two steps: an initial approximation generated by means of an integration method, followed by a forecast of its error, determined by a prediction technique that models and reproduces the missing dynamics. In this study we analyze the effect of slightly changing the initial conditions for which a hybrid propagator was developed. We explore the possibility of generating a new hybrid propagator from others previously developed for nearby initial conditions. We find that the interpolation of the parameters of the prediction technique, which in this case is an additive Holt-Winters method, yields similarly accurate results to a non-interpolated hybrid propagator when modeling the J2 effect in the main problem propagation.