Getting into the Right Lane for 2050: A primer for EU debate

Abstract

The same visionary foresight that founded the European Union half a century ago is needed today to chart the course of the EU through the coming half century, in a world of changing global relations and growing scarcity of natural resources. This study examines the EU of today, from a global perspective, and looks at longterm visions on the world of 2050. It identifies key decisions for today on global land and water resources, and low-carbon energy systems, including transport. This analysis has revealed strategic junctions in the coming five to ten years at which EU decision-making is essential. The direction taken at these junctions will be decisive in determining whether the long-term vision postulated for wise natural resource use can be achieved. Specifically, the vision for 2050 encompasses producing food for a global population of nine billion while minimising biodiversity loss; mitigating climate change while enhancing energy security for the EU; and practical and workable solutions for an EU transport system that is low carbon. These three themes have been singled out on the basis of recent authoritative worldwide assessments. The analysis of the three themes builds on global modelling developed for these assessments. Reasoning back from the 2050 vision for each theme, the study reveals strategic actions for the EU agenda for the coming five to ten years that will be decisive in achieving long-term visions. Strategic timing of the policy decisions for the issues in focus is critical, because the magnitude of change is large and the pace of change is limited. For instance, refocusing institutions and constructing largescale infrastructure takes decades to achieve. Thus, the studys findings underline the significance of the end of the first decade of this century for the EU long-term agenda. Furthermore, the study reveals specific policy challenges for natural resource use on which the EU is well positioned to take a global leadership role. This brings another consideration in favour of action now, namely that EU leverage globally, for instance its influence on global product standards, will shrink as new players on the world stage become more prominent and powerful. A vision to feed nine billion people worldwide by 2050 and halting biodiversity loss by 2030 is a compelling reason for EU leadership in global collaboration to prioritise, protect and pay for key ecosystems and biodiversity. The EU is also well positioned to take a lead in global collaboration to bridge diverging perspectives on land and 10 Getting into the Right Lane for 2050 water resources, food and biodiversity in the context of globalisation as has been done for climate change. Even with the improved agricultural productivity projected by the FAO, a further 3 million km2 of land would need to be converted in order to feed the worlds population in 2050. In a context of global collaboration on agricultural methods, the Mediterranean basin could be seen as a logical pioneer area for renewed agricultural and ecosystems policy. Nurturing the present diversity in agricultural practices within the EU would contribute to buffering inevitable shocks to the global food system in a very crowded world. Thus, diversity in land management needs to be made a strategic aim of the post-2013 Common Agricultural Policy. The vision on a low-carbon energy system and increased security of energy supply involves the EU taking the lead in the global collaboration against climate change. It requires preparations to rapidly accelerate deployment of low-carbon technologies after 2020, to achieve an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050, relative to 1990 levels, within the EU. While the current Emission Trading Scheme provides incentives for gradual emission reductions, the EU needs to develop powerful additional incentives and new institutional arrangements to bring about more radical changes in the energy system. For instance, an investment framework for a continental-scale power grid of the future is critical to a low-carbon EU economy. A low-carbon EU transport system that is economically viable depends on technology advances and equally on challenging reductions in transport growth. In fact, projected growth in EU transport as a whole implies emissions have to be reduced in 2050 from baseline projections, by a factor of 12. In particular, emissions from road passenger transport will have to be reduced by as much as a factor of 20 or 25. A sufficient supply of low-carbon electricity for urban and medium-range transport requires early action, irrespective of whether electricity or hydrogen will be the dominant energy carrier. Critical to achieving low-carbon transport in the EU is timely international action on greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and maritime transport. Above all, policy coherence on transport and climate is vital for all portfolios of the European Commission. Add-on policies cannot achieve the envisaged emission reduction in EU transport, with the implication that the energy sector would have to achieve even steeper emission reductions to compensate. From a global perspective, the three themes are manifestations of the same challenge, namely to steer through the far-reaching changes in the coming decades, so that global use of natural resources remains within long-term constraints. Among trade-offs and potential synergies, an intellectual and policy challenge is to transcend partial analyses, for example, between policies on land and water resources, and on energy and climate resources. In this vein, bio-energy policies are a tangible link between energy and climate change; land resources, food and biodiversity; and transport and mobility. This study makes a case for restricting bio-energy to applications for which no alternatives are currently available and where climate benefits most, namely Summary: Getting into the Right Lane for 2050 11 maritime transport, road freight transport, aviation, and electricity production coupled with carbon capture and storage. This strategy differs from current EU policy. At a strategic level, there are more links and similarities between the themes. In backcasting from 2050 to the present, three similarities are revealed. The first is a strategic approach to interim solutions, for instance, not allowing energy supply constraints in 2020 to determine the EU energy system of 2050. The second is that diversity emerges as a strategic notion in all three themes in sources and technology in the EU energy system; in transport solutions; and in the battle against uniformity of landscapes. The third, and perhaps most difficult, is the need for balanced consumption in achieving the visions for 2050 and the EU role, if any, in influencing consumer choices. Getting in the Right Lane provides examples that connect coming EU policy decisions to an agenda for a visionary EU. It illustrates that enhancing policy coherence has three interrelated dimensions: Between policy portfolios, as promoted through the Commissions system of Impact Assessment of new policies; Between the EU and elsewhere, as expressed in the notion of incorporating an external dimension in EU policies; Between now and later, as provided in this study that connects the long-term vision to agenda items for the next European Commission.