Impact of an increased biomass use on agricultural markets, prices and food security: A longer-term perspective

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of rising demand for bioenergy on agricultural markets and prices. It reviews quantitative assessments of bioenergy potential and concludes that demand for bioenergy is significant enough to create a change in the traditional paradigm for global agriculture, which has been characterized for decades by robust supply growth, slowing demand growth and falling real prices for agricultural produce. It then assesses the competitiveness of selected agricultural feedstocks in the transportation and heating fuel markets and identifies resulting floor and ceiling prices for agricultural products. Based on the likely price effects in food and energy markets, it assesses the impact of rising bioenergy production on food security, differentiating between effects on availability, access and stability of food supplies.