Implications of the Growth Trends in Mainland China Grain Production

Abstract

Apart from boosting economic growth, good grain harvests on the Chinese mainland are always crucial to general rural prosperity as well as overall political and social stability. Hence all Chinese leaders, past and present, closely watch the level of national grain production. As mainland China is by far the world's single largest producer, its production performance can have significant international implications. If it were to resort to importing grain from the world grain market to make up for just 10 percent of domestic shortfall, serious destabilization of world grain prices would occur. Mainland China's grain production over the past four decades of Communist rule has registered a growth rate of 2.6 percent, which exceeds the population growth rate of 1.8 percent by a comfortable margin. On the whole, the mainland has succeeded in feeding its people. The pattern of annual growth in grain production has, however, fluctuated widly. This has been caused by random weather effects as well as strong policy influences. In fact, a time series for grain production displays three clear-cut trends, covering the periods 1952-58, 1959-77, and 1978-90. The last period coincided with the economic reforms that removed unwarranted ideological constraints and political intervention in agricultural production. Hence grain production during this period grew at an impressive rate along with productivity gains. In short, mainland Chinese agriculture is entering the crucial phase of technological transformation. The greatest challenge to the Chinese leadership is the need to ensure that the agricultural system can produce an additional 100 million tons by the late 1990s in order to feed the projected population of 1.3 billion. Clearly, mainland China has to step up its Green Revolution with a more intensive use of modern inputs. This, in turn, requires the present leadership to make a stronger commitment to agricultural development.