Authors of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) received guidance on reporting understanding, certainty and/or confidence in findings using a common language, to better communicate with decision makers. However, a review of the IPCC conducted by the InterAcademy Council (2010) found that "the guidance was not consistently followed in AR4, leading to unnecessary errors . . . the guidance was often applied to statements that are so vague they cannot be falsified. In these cases the impression was often left, quite incorrectly, that a substantive finding was being presented." Our comprehensive and quantitative analysis of findings and associated uncertainty in the AR4 supports the IAC findings and suggests opportunities for improvement in future assessments. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
CITATION STYLE
Jonassen, R., & Pielke, R. (2011, October). Improving conveyance of uncertainties in the findings of the IPCC. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0185-7
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