Intense convective systems in West Africa and their relationship to the African easterly jet

Abstract

For May-September 1998, convective systems in West Africa were identified from observations by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite Microwave Imager at 85 GHz. Using re-analysis data, the 10-day average position of the African easterly jet (AEJ) was diagnosed from the 700 hPa zonal winds. The distance from each convective system's centroid to the axis of the AEJ was calculated. Each convective system's minimum brightness temperatures were ranked so that intense convective systems were defined as those in the 10th percentile or lower. The weak (> 10th percentile) and intense convective systems were represented statistically as two separate populations, the weak by the skewed Gumbel distribution and the intense by the normal distribution. From May to August, the peak in activity of weak convective systems remained south of 10°N but shifted east of 10°E. The peak in activity of the intense convective systems followed the seasonal migration of the AEJ northwards and became increasingly separate from the peak in activity of weak convective systems. The majority of both weak and intense convective systems occurred within 0.50° of high terrain. The high convective available potential energy, high-shear AEJ environment in the vicinity of high terrain appeared to have the greatest probability of generating intense convective systems in the study area. © Royal Meteorological Society, 2006.