Interannual Variation of Upper Tropospheric CO over the Western Pacific Linked with Indonesian Fires

Abstract

We analyzed temporal variations of carbon monoxide (CO) in the upper troposphere from 30°N to 30°S observed using instruments aboard commercial airliner flights between Japan and Australia over the period 1993-2016. Here we focused on the CO variations in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) that showed a unique seasonal cycle with an increased CO around October-November every year. The seasonal CO peaks in the SH showed significant interannual variability (IAV), and are notably enhanced in strong El Niño years, especially 1997. The CO enhancements are proportionally associated with CO emissions from Indonesian fires, when compared to the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). The IAV of the CO peak anomalies relative to the mean seasonal cycle was assessed by a statistical regression model that uses a combination of multiple climate indices and their interaction terms. We found that over 80% of the CO IAV observed in the upper troposphere could be explained by the model. The largest anomaly in 1997 showed a different CO-climate relationship than the other periods, which could be due to amplification during synchronized climate modes, or include additional influence from other factors such as human activities.