Introduction and Background

Abstract

The current book is devoted to known (although seldom used by demographers) Bayesian statistical methods, applied in one of the most under-researched areas of population forecasting; that is, predictions of international migration. The study aims to keep up to date with the methodological state-of-the-art migration forecasting by presenting a thorough review of methods, while at the same time advocating for the use of the stochastic approach within the Bayesian framework, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement. The current, introductory chapter presents the background, aims, scope and structure of the book, as well as terminological and notational conventions.