Intuitive bayesian point estimation

Abstract

This paper presents the results of an experiment designed to investigate the relationship between intuitive Bayesian point estimates and theoretically optimal Bayesian point estimates for various probability distributions (normal distributions) and loss functions (linear and quadratic loss functions). The results indicate that this relationship depends somewhat on the parameters of the distribution and loss function. Overall, however, the subjects performed the task of intuitive estimation and prediction very well. On the average, the intuitive estimates were quite close to the optimal estimates despite the complexity of the decision-making problem. © 1970.