Long-term variability of the South Adriatic circulation and phytoplankton biomass in relation to large-scale climatic pattern

Abstract

The interannual variability of the South Adriatic Gyre and its relation to the wind vorticity and the large-scale climatic pattern (North Atlantic Oscillation – NAO), was studied using the time-series of satellite altimetry data and ocean surface wind products. The cyclonic circulation observed in the South Adriatic area was mainly sustained by the local wind forcing, as suggested by the positive correlation between the rate of change of the current vorticity and the wind-stress vorticity. Nevertheless, the influence of vorticity advection from the adjacent area (North Ionian Sea) cannot be ignored and it is more significant during the anticyclonic phase of Adriatic–Ionian Bimodal Oscillation System. The geostrophic current vorticities of the South Adriatic and North Ionian Seas are correlated with a time lag of 15 months, which corresponds to an advection speed of ~1 cm s −1. The different wind patterns observed during the two NAO phases revealed a stronger positive vorticity during the negative NAO phase. Conversely, during the positive NAO phase the wind vorticity is characterized by lower positive values. Subsequently, the calculated positive linear correlation between the NAO index and the frequency of the cold and dry northerly wind suggests the strengthening of the winter convection, and of the consecutive deep water formation, during the positive NAO phases. As a consequence of the winter deep convection, Southern Adriatic area is characterized by the late winter/early spring algal blooms. Relationship between the spatially averaged surface chlorophyll concentrations and the northerly wind frequencies revealed that the two biological productivity regimes likely exist: the subtropical one and the subpolar one depending on the frequency of windy days. We also showed that the bloom timing is a linear function of the wind frequency and can vary within the range of almost two months. This study thus contributes to our understanding of the possible impact of climate change on the SAG circulation and its ecosystem.