The method for predicting solar proton events

Abstract

Dynamic processes in the interplanetary space have been investigated using time variations in time parameters of the cosmic-ray rigidity spectrum. Change of heliosphere electromagnetic characteristics has been found out to precede sporadic phenomena on the Sun. In particular, it is shown that sporadic phenomena are followed by generation of local polarization electric fields, decrease of the magnetic-field strength in small-scale heliospheric structures, and increase of the potential difference between the pole and the plane of the ecliptic. These features allow prediction of solar proton events in advance (from several hours to several tens of hours) with a high degree of confirmation. © 2008 COSPAR.