Modelling the long-term development of an energy system with the use of a technology explicit partial equilibrium model

Abstract

The paper presents the results of a study on the modelling of the development of the power system in Poland in the long-term time horizon. Four scenarios were considered, differentiated according to four parameters, notably price evolution of CO2 emission allowances, targets for renewable energy technologies, limits on new nuclear capacity additions and availability of carbon capture and storage technology. The analysis was conducted with the πESA service developed within the Energy Sector domain grid within the PLGrid Plus project. The main analytical tool used was the TIMES energy model generator. The results of the analysis show that the Polish power sector is very vulnerable to the EU climate policy. The changes in the fuel and technology structure, total CO2 emissions and the electricity generation costs for each scenario were presented.