Models, Models, Everywhere

Abstract

How does the FiveThirtyEight model--where Barack Obama's probability of winning the Electoral College recently ticked above 70 percent--compare against alternative means of forecasting the election? The FiveThirtyEight model was quite close to the consensus until recently, but has now become a bit more bullish on Mr. Obama's chances, listing his Electoral College odds at slightly over 70 percent--instead of slightly over 60 percent, as the consensus does.