How physics-based earthquake simulators might help improve earthquake forecasts

Abstract

Questions have persisted on the usefulness of physics-based earthquake simulators with respect to forecasting earthquakes, due mostly to the inevitable assumptions, approximations, and uncertainties. Whether any model is reliable or trustworthy depends entirely on what questions we are asking of it, so the point of this article is to outline a number of currently anticipated and desired inferences, informed largely by recent forecasting efforts in California. This article does not provide an in-depth review of physics-based simulators, nor does it render judgment on the usefulness question. The intent, rather, is to provide an explicit list of potential uses, or inferences, to enable more informed discussions among physics-based modeling experts.