Potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change (2008)
- ISSN: 13812386
- DOI: 10.1007/s11027-007-9126-1
Available from
Kent McFarland's profile on Mendeley.
or
Abstract
Abstract We used three approaches to assess potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast. First, we created distribution and abundance models for common bird species using climate, elevation, and tree species variables and modeled how bird distributions might change as habitats shift. Second, we assessed potential effects on high-elevation birds, especially Bicknells thrush (Catharus bicknelli), that may be particularly vulnerable to climate change, by using statistical associations between climate, spruce-fir forest vegetation and bird survey data. Last, we complemented these projections with an assessment of how habitat quality of a migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler (Dendroica caerulescens) might be affected by climate change. Large changes in bird communities of the Northeast are likely to result from climate change, and these changes will be most dramatic under a scenario of continued high emissions. Indeed, high-elevation bird species may currently be at the threshold of critical change with as little as 1C warming reducing suitable habitat by more than half. Species at mid elevations are likely to experience declines in habitat quality that could affect demography. Although not all species will be affected adversely, some of the Northeasts iconic species, such as common loon and black-capped chickadee, and some of its most abundant species, including several neotropical migrants, are projected to decline significantly in abundance under all climate change scenarios. No clear mitigation strategies are apparent, as shifts in species abundances and ranges will occur across all habitat types and for species with widely differing ecologies.
Page 1
Potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast
A
pp
en
di
x
1
of
R
od
en
ho
us
e e
t a
l.
20
07
.
Po
te
nt
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l E
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pp
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x
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ac
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pp
en
di
x
1
of
R
od
en
ho
us
e e
t a
l.
20
07
.
Po
te
nt
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l E
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ct
s o
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at
e C
ha
ng
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n
Bi
rd
s o
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pp
en
di
x
1.
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ird
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ec
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s i
nc
lu
de
d
in
th
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na
ly
sis
o
f c
om
m
on
b
ird
sp
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ie
s.
E
ac
h
sp
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ie
s i
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la
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as
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ig
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to
ry
st
at
us
an
d
th
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br
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di
ng
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ab
ita
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ld
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se
d
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m
m
ar
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at
a.
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re
po
rt
th
e %
o
f t
he
sp
ec
ie
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cc
up
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r o
cc
up
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b
as
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o
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ita
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ur
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on
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in
al
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, w
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Page 2
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re
sid
en
t
un
cla
ss
4.
1
>2
00
90
.7
>2
00
65
.2
>2
00
19
.4
>2
00
14
.1
M
iss
iss
ip
pi
K
ite
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
un
cla
ss
0
na
80
na
45
.8
na
2.
8
na
0.
5
No
rth
er
n
Ha
rri
er
te
m
pe
ra
te
gr
as
sla
nd
36
.1
-8
7.
2
-2
9.
9
-8
3.
8
-2
8.
4
-7
8.
8
-2
6.
5
-8
1.
2
-2
7.
5
Re
dt
ai
le
d
Ha
wk
te
m
pe
ra
te
un
cla
ss
87
34
.9
13
32
.3
13
16
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10
.7
9.
9
7.
5
Re
ds
ho
ul
de
re
d
Ha
wk
te
m
pe
ra
te
fo
re
st
53
.4
>2
00
46
.6
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00
44
.5
62
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17
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21
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5.
7
Br
oa
dw
in
ge
d
Ha
wk
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
fo
re
st
89
16
.9
11
5.
4
10
.3
-1
8.
4
-0
.1
8.
9
Am
er
ica
n
Ke
st
re
l
te
m
pe
ra
te
un
cla
ss
10
0
-3
1.
8
0
-2
4.
6
0
-8
.9
0
-5
.8
0
G
re
at
H
or
ne
d
O
wl
re
sid
en
t
un
cla
ss
42
>2
00
58
>2
00
54
.8
75
.5
19
.1
17
.9
3.
6
Ye
llo
wb
ille
d
Cu
ck
oo
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
fo
re
st
74
>2
00
26
>2
00
26
12
6.
6
23
.6
86
.2
18
.7
Bl
ac
kb
ille
d
Cu
ck
oo
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
fo
re
st
99
.9
-7
1.
1
-3
8.
6
-5
8.
2
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3.
3
-2
4.
2
-1
2.
9
-1
2.
3
-5
.6
Do
wn
y
W
oo
dp
ec
ke
r
re
sid
en
t
fo
re
st
10
0
-2
.4
0
3
0
6.
6
0
5.
7
0
Ye
llo
wb
el
lie
d
Sa
ps
uc
ke
r
te
m
pe
ra
te
fo
re
st
69
.7
-7
3
-3
4.
4
-7
0.
6
-3
4.
5
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9.
8
-3
0
-3
9.
6
-2
6
ip
e
Sp
ot
te
d
Sa
nd
pi
pe
r
m
ig
ra
nt
we
tla
nd
76
.4
-7
7.
2
-5
2.
4
-7
2.
5
-4
9.
1
-4
7.
8
-2
8.
1
-3
6.
1
-1
7.
6
Ki
lld
ee
r
te
m
pe
ra
te
un
cla
ss
10
0
5.
4
0
7.
4
0
3.
9
0
1.
5
0
G
ra
y
Pa
rtr
id
ge
re
sid
en
t
un
cla
ss
1.
1
>2
00
9.
9
>2
00
3.
3
45
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0.
8
-4
8.
6
-0
.6
No
rth
er
n
Bo
bw
hi
te
re
sid
en
t
sh
ru
bl
an
d
39
.7
>2
00
60
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>2
00
60
.1
>2
00
46
19
9.
4
37
.5
Ru
ffe
d
G
ro
us
e
re
sid
en
t
fo
re
st
75
.7
-5
7.
7
-2
3.
3
-5
7.
5
-2
3.
6
-4
4.
4
-1
6.
5
-3
8.
3
-1
1.
6
Ri
ng
ne
ck
ed
Ph
ea
sa
nt
re
sid
en
t
gr
as
sla
nd
75
.9
-3
3.
3
19
-3
3.
9
8.
1
-1
8.
2
4.
2
-1
0.
3
5.
8
Ro
ck
D
ov
e
re
sid
en
t
ur
ba
n
10
0
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9.
1
0
-2
0.
7
0
-4
.6
0
-1
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0
M
ou
rn
in
g
Do
ve
te
m
pe
ra
te
ur
ba
n
10
0
4.
4
0
4.
9
0
5.
6
0
5.
3
0
Co
m
m
on
G
ro
un
dD
ov
e
re
sid
en
t
sh
ru
bl
an
d
0
na
14
.7
na
1.
8
na
0.
2
na
0.
2
Tu
rk
ey
V
ul
tu
re
te
m
pe
ra
te
un
cla
ss
75
.7
13
6.
8
24
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11
4.
6
24
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62
19
.1
47
.9
16
Bl
ac
k
Vu
ltu
re
re
sid
en
t
un
cla
ss
4.
1
>2
00
90
.7
>2
00
65
.2
>2
00
19
.4
>2
00
14
.1
M
iss
iss
ip
pi
K
ite
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
un
cla
ss
0
na
80
na
45
.8
na
2.
8
na
0.
5
No
rth
er
n
Ha
rri
er
te
m
pe
ra
te
gr
as
sla
nd
36
.1
-8
7.
2
-2
9.
9
-8
3.
8
-2
8.
4
-7
8.
8
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6.
5
-8
1.
2
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7.
5
Re
dt
ai
le
d
Ha
wk
te
m
pe
ra
te
un
cla
ss
87
34
.9
13
32
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13
16
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10
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9.
9
7.
5
Re
ds
ho
ul
de
re
d
Ha
wk
te
m
pe
ra
te
fo
re
st
53
.4
>2
00
46
.6
>2
00
44
.5
62
.5
17
.3
21
.1
5.
7
Br
oa
dw
in
ge
d
Ha
wk
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
fo
re
st
89
16
.9
11
5.
4
10
.3
-1
8.
4
-0
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8.
9
Am
er
ica
n
Ke
st
re
l
te
m
pe
ra
te
un
cla
ss
10
0
-3
1.
8
0
-2
4.
6
0
-8
.9
0
-5
.8
0
G
re
at
H
or
ne
d
O
wl
re
sid
en
t
un
cla
ss
42
>2
00
58
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00
54
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75
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19
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17
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3.
6
Ye
llo
wb
ille
d
Cu
ck
oo
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
fo
re
st
74
>2
00
26
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00
26
12
6.
6
23
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86
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18
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Bl
ac
kb
ille
d
Cu
ck
oo
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
fo
re
st
99
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-7
1.
1
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8.
6
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8.
2
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3.
3
-2
4.
2
-1
2.
9
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2.
3
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Do
wn
y
W
oo
dp
ec
ke
r
re
sid
en
t
fo
re
st
10
0
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0
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0
6.
6
0
5.
7
0
Ye
llo
wb
el
lie
d
Sa
ps
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ke
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te
m
pe
ra
te
fo
re
st
69
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3
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4.
4
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0.
6
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4.
5
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9.
8
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0
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9.
6
-2
6
Page 3
Pi
le
at
ed
W
oo
dp
ec
ke
r
re
sid
en
t
fo
re
st
99
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58
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0.
6
50
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0.
6
26
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0.
6
14
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0.
6
Re
dh
ea
de
d
W
oo
dp
ec
ke
r
te
m
pe
ra
te
un
cla
ss
37
.4
>2
00
62
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>2
00
62
.2
>2
00
33
.2
93
.8
12
.1
Re
db
el
lie
d
W
oo
dp
ec
ke
r
re
sid
en
t
fo
re
st
55
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>2
00
44
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00
44
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14
5.
5
32
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10
4.
1
25
Ch
uc
kW
ills
W
id
ow
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
fo
re
st
1.
4
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00
97
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00
83
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00
33
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00
18
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W
hi
pp
oo
rw
ill
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
fo
re
st
47
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>2
00
52
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00
51
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00
34
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96
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19
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Co
m
m
on
Ni
gh
th
aw
k
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
un
cla
ss
13
>2
00
87
>2
00
76
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16
3.
3
16
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3.
5
-3
.6
Ch
im
ne
y
Sw
ift
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
ur
ba
n
10
0
3.
8
0
6.
2
0
10
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0
10
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0
Ru
by
th
ro
at
ed
Hu
m
m
in
gb
ird
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
fo
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st
98
.6
94
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1.
4
78
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1.
4
30
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1.
4
14
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1.
4
Sc
iss
or
ta
ile
d
Fl
yc
at
ch
er
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
un
cla
ss
0
na
96
.5
na
76
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na
16
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na
3.
1
Ea
st
er
n
Ki
ng
bi
rd
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
un
cla
ss
98
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14
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1.
7
22
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1.
7
10
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1.
7
2
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5
Ea
st
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n
Ph
oe
be
te
m
pe
ra
te
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ss
98
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34
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1.
1
42
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1.
1
28
1.
1
20
1.
1
Ea
st
er
n
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oo
dP
ew
ee
ne
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ro
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ca
l
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st
98
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33
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1.
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36
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1.
6
14
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1.
6
7.
2
1.
6
Ac
ad
ia
n
Fl
yc
at
ch
er
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
fo
re
st
33
>2
00
67
>2
00
66
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00
52
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19
4.
8
39
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W
illo
w
Fl
yc
at
ch
er
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pi
ca
l
sh
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bl
an
d
86
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7.
2
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0
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3.
2
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8.
4
18
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-0
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21
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2.
8
Le
as
t
Fl
yc
at
ch
er
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
fo
re
st
88
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9.
9
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5.
4
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3.
3
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4.
6
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1.
6
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6.
3
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1.
1
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0.
5
Ho
rn
ed
L
ar
k
te
m
pe
ra
te
gr
as
sla
nd
26
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>2
00
73
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>2
00
73
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00
45
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18
7.
1
23
Bl
ue
J
ay
te
m
pe
ra
te
ur
ba
n
99
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6.
4
0.
8
16
0.
8
9.
4
0.
8
2.
5
0.
8
Am
er
ica
n
Cr
ow
te
m
pe
ra
te
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ss
99
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5.
2
0.
6
14
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0.
6
8.
7
0.
6
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6
0.
6
Fi
sh
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ro
w
te
m
pe
ra
te
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cla
ss
16
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16
3.
9
52
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99
.7
33
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24
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10
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16
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7.
3
Eu
ro
pe
an
St
ar
lin
g
te
m
pe
ra
te
ur
ba
n
10
0
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1.
7
0
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0.
1
0
2.
1
0
2.
9
0
Bo
bo
lin
k
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
gr
as
sla
nd
96
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-8
8.
4
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7.
8
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1.
8
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6.
3
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7.
1
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5.
3
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6
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4.
9
Br
ow
nh
ea
de
d
Co
wb
ird
te
m
pe
ra
te
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cla
ss
10
0
1.
3
0
2.
8
0
4.
6
0
4.
3
0
le
at
ed
W
oo
dp
ec
ke
r
re
sid
en
t
fo
re
st
99
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58
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0.
6
50
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0.
6
26
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0.
6
14
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0.
6
Re
dh
ea
de
d
W
oo
dp
ec
ke
r
te
m
pe
ra
te
un
cla
ss
37
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00
62
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00
62
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00
33
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93
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12
.1
Re
db
el
lie
d
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dp
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ke
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re
sid
en
t
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st
55
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00
44
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5.
5
32
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10
4.
1
25
Ch
uc
kW
ills
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id
ow
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
fo
re
st
1.
4
>2
00
97
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>2
00
83
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00
33
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00
18
.7
W
hi
pp
oo
rw
ill
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
fo
re
st
47
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>2
00
52
>2
00
51
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00
34
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96
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19
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Co
m
m
on
Ni
gh
th
aw
k
ne
ot
ro
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ca
l
un
cla
ss
13
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00
87
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00
76
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16
3.
3
16
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-2
3.
5
-3
.6
Ch
im
ne
y
Sw
ift
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
ur
ba
n
10
0
3.
8
0
6.
2
0
10
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0
10
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0
Ru
by
th
ro
at
ed
Hu
m
m
in
gb
ird
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
fo
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st
98
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94
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1.
4
78
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1.
4
30
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1.
4
14
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1.
4
Sc
iss
or
ta
ile
d
Fl
yc
at
ch
er
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
un
cla
ss
0
na
96
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na
76
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na
16
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na
3.
1
Ea
st
er
n
Ki
ng
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rd
ne
ot
ro
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l
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98
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14
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7
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7
10
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7
2
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5
Ea
st
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Ph
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m
pe
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ss
98
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34
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1.
1
42
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1
28
1.
1
20
1.
1
Ea
st
er
n
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oo
dP
ew
ee
ne
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ro
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ca
l
fo
re
st
98
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33
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1.
6
36
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1.
6
14
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1.
6
7.
2
1.
6
Ac
ad
ia
n
Fl
yc
at
ch
er
ne
ot
ro
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ca
l
fo
re
st
33
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00
67
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00
66
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00
52
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19
4.
8
39
.7
W
illo
w
Fl
yc
at
ch
er
ne
ot
ro
pi
ca
l
sh
ru
bl
an
d
86
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7.
2
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0
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3.
2
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8.
4
18
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-0
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21
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2.
8
Le
as
t
Fl
yc
at
ch
er
ne
ot
ro
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ca
l
fo
re
st
88
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-5
9.
9
-2
5.
4
-5
3.
3
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4.
6
-3
1.
6
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6.
3
-2
1.
1
-1
0.
5
Ho
rn
ed
L
ar
k
te
m
pe
ra
te
gr
as
sla
nd
26
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>2
00
73
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>2
00
73
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00
45
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18
7.
1
23
Bl
ue
J
ay
te
m
pe
ra
te
ur
ba
n
99
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6.
4
0.
8
16
0.
8
9.
4
0.
8
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Page 4
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Page 5
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Page 6
Bl
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