Prediction or prophecy?: The boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences

Abstract

Economic policy making matters to all of us. Economists are supposed to provide the necessary knowledge which enables policy makers to take effective economic policy decisions. Gregor Betz explores the following questions: " Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? " Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? " Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all? Numerous case studies, drawn from economics and natural sciences, underpin the general argumentation. © Deutscher Universitats-Verlag I GWV Fachverlage GmbH, Wiesbaden 2006.