When predictions fail: The dilemma of unrealistic optimism. Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment.
Reviews research on optimistic biases in personal predictions and addresses the question of how people can maintain these biases when doing so would seem to be maladaptive. This chapter begins by reviewing empirical evidence that has shown optimistic biases to be a common feature of people's predictions and expectations. The authors also discuss the dilemma, and resolving the dilemma of unrealistic optimism.