Recent revisions of phosphate rock reserves and resources: reassuring or misleading? An in-depth literature review of global estimates of phosphate rock reserves and resources

Abstract

Phosphate rock (PR) is a finite mineral indispensible for fertilizer production and a major pollutant. High grade PR is obtained from deposits which took millions of years to form and are gradually being depleted. Over the past three years, global PR reserves as reported by US Geological Survey (USGS) have seen a massive increase, from 16 000 Mt PR in 2010 to 65 000 Mt PR in 2011. The bulk of this four-fold increase is based on a 2010 report by International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC), which increased Moroccan reserves from 5700 Mt PR as reported by USGS, to 51 000 Mt PR, reported as upgraded ("beneficiated") concentrate. IFDC used a starkly simplified classification compared to the classification used by USGS and proposed that agreement should be reached on PR resource terminology which should be as simple as possible. The report has profoundly influenced the PR scarcity debate, shifting the emphasis from depletion to the pollution angle of the phosphate problem. Various analysts adopted the findings of IFDC and USGS, and argued that that following depletion of reserves, uneconomic deposits (resources and occurrences) will remain available which will extend the lifetime of available deposits to thousands of years. Given the near total dependence of food production on PR, data on PR deposits must be transparent, comparable, reliable and credible. Based on an in-depth literature review, we analyze (i) how IFDC's simplified terminology compares to international best practice in resource classification and whether it is likely to yield data that meets the abovementioned requirements; (ii) whether the difference between ore reserves and reserves as concentrate is sufficiently noted in the literature, and (iii) whether the IFDC report and its estimate of PR reserves and resources is reliable. We conclude that, while there is a global development toward common criteria in resource reporting, IFDC's definitions contravene this development and – due to their vagueness and their lack of granularity – may cause more confusion than clarity. The difference between ore and concentrate is barely noted in the literature, causing a pervasive confusion and a high degree of error in many assessments. Finally, we conclude that the report presents an inflated picture of global reserves, in particular those of Morocco, where largely hypothetical and inferred resources have simply been converted to "reserves". In view of the essentiality of PR for food production, there currently is insufficient knowledge on the PR deposits available for extraction. Further research is required as to the quantity of PR deposits and their viability for future extraction.