Sulfur dioxide emissions in Asia in the period 1985-1997

Abstract

A consistent set of SO2, emission trends has been developed for Asian countries for the time period 1985-1997. The trend is based on extrapolation of a detailed 1990 inventory, which was constructed as part of the World Bank's RAINS-ASIA project, using IEA energy-use data. The trend shows Asian SO2 emissions growing from 33.7 Tg in 1990 to 39.2 Tg in 1997. Estimates interpolated from the RAINS-ASIA computer model suggest a value for 1997 of 46.4 Tg, assuming no major changes in emission abatement policies after 1990. The reduction in the 1997 value, by some 16%, is primarily due to regulatory requirements and other trends toward lower sulfur content of oil products and coal. A slowdown in the growth of emissions in China - due to a reduction in economic growth, the mining of higher-quality coals, enhanced environmental awareness, and a reduction in industrial coal use - has been instrumental in arresting the growth of Asian emissions. Most of the positive developments have occurred in East Asia, and high-emission growth rates persist in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent. The outlook for the future is that Asian SO2 emissions may well peak in the region of 40-45 Tg by the year 2020 or earlier, in contrast to previous predictions of 2020 emissions as high as 80-110 Tg. The trends developed in this paper are good news for the local and regional environment, particularly in East Asia. However, they also signify lower-than-anticipated concentrations of sulfate aerosol over the Asian continent, with the resulting possibility of greater-than-anticipated regional and global warming.